The odds are astronomical, but the Flotrack staff has attempted to predict the Bowerman Mile results. As it has every year, the Prefontaine Classic has put together a rematch with almost all of the 2012 Summer Olympic Game finalists in the 1,500-meter run.

How does one make sense of the madness to ensue on Saturday in Eugene? Sometimes you over analyze early season statistics and sometimes you just have to pick names out of a hat. We did just that to see if picking at random with a field like this will yield better results than studying previous races. 

Name	Country	Olympics	Chavez	Kastoff	Fenton	Lohr	Random
T. Makhloufi	ALG	1	2	6	3	8	7
L. Manzano	USA	2	5	13	6	6	3
A. Iguider	MAR	3	6	5	8	3	4
M. Centrowitz	USA	4	7	9	4	9	13
M. Gebremedhin	ETH	6	3	2	2	2	1
S. Kiplagat	KEN	7	10	10	11	5	9
N. Chepseba	KEN	11	4	7	5	10	6
A. Kiprop	KEN	12	1	1	1	1	2
C. Cheboi	KEN	N/A	9	4	7	7	12
R. Gregson	AUS	N/A	13	14	13	13	8
L. Lomong	USA	N/A	12	11	9	11	11
C. Ndiku	KEN	N/A	11	8	12	14	10
A. Souleiman	DJI	N/A	8	3	10	4	5
A. Wote	ETH	N/A	14	12	14	12	14

 
Chris Chavez on the Americans:   Would Leo Manzano would have medaled at the 2012 Summer Olympic Games if Asbel Kiprop and Silas Kiplagat were healthy? Things would have certainly been much tougher and we could get a taste of that test on Saturday. 

Kiprop was the man to beat going into the race last year and he heads into Saturday winning three of the last four Bowerman miles. His start to the season adds even more reason for him to be the favorite as he’s already run 3:31.13 at Doha on May 10. 

Although it will be Taoufik Makloufi’s will be hunted down by Kiprop, Kiplagat, and Chepseba in his season debut with feelings of redemption after London. The way the season has panned out so far, I only see Kiprop holding him off in the first head to head.  Chepseba and Kiprop still can improve as the year progresses, but with such a large group, they’re in the middle. 

A field like this could lead to Manzano’s breakout race before the U.S. Championships. Without a shoe company contract, he has looked different to start his season. His best 1,500-meter race comes from the Oxy High Performance meet in 3:37.04. He followed that up with a 1:48.89 at the Adidas Grand Prix in New York. He told me he isn’t threatened by the 1,500-meter depth and is excited for the weeks to come. 

The other two Americans behind Manzano will be Matt Centrowitz and Lopez Lomong. 

Lomong raised some eyebrows during indoor season going undefeated with his wins at the Husky Classic (800m, 1:46.53), Millrose Games (Wannamaker Mile, 3:51.21), and Columbia Last Chance Meet (5,000m, 13:07.00 AR). He only lost to Manzano by .04 of a second at the Oxy High Performance meet in a race that did not go as fast as expected. Similar to Manzano, Lomong is still missing that one race this outdoor season wowing the audience. 

Centrowitz’s fitness is there after a long indoor season and early start to outdoor. Race execution may just be something that can be touched upon after running 3:37.27 at Oxy. 

Ryan Fenton on making assumptions: Kiprop has the kick to win this race and he’s been consistent in his last few outings. Expect Mekonnen Gebremedhin of Ethiopia to be right up there with him. The top foreigners in this race are coming in hot, so it is pretty much a roll of the dice. Some of my picks are based on personal bests and some assumptions that these guys might not run faster than they already have run. At the same time, you have guys like Manzano and Centrowitz rounding into form around this time of the year. 

For Manzano, there’s also the downside of having so many guys in this race. It may not be the best situation for someone that tends to kick and catch as many guys as he can in the last 100 meters. 

In 11th place I have Silas Kiplagat, who has already run 3:33 in the 1,500-meter at Shanghai. If you’re 12th in this race, you’re already knocking on the door of a 3:50 performance possibly if the race is on pace from the beginning. 

Mitch Kastoff on the international stars: I assumed that everyone in the office was either going to have similar picks or talk about the Americans, so I decided to play the wild card and mix up the middle of my lineup. Although we actually drew names from a hat to determine places two through nine, there are hidden indicators for why the world descending 1500m list isn’t necessarily going to predict the Bowerman Mile.

Ayanleh Souleiman

I’m not sure what everyone else put for the twenty-year-old Djiboutian, but he has the biggest upside in this race. After running the fourth fastest time in the world last year (3:30.31), Souleiman unfortunately had to withdraw from the London Olympics with “cortical thickening of [the] tibia and fibula.”

Even though the then teenager was poised to make a big splash on the biggest stage, it was actually his training partner who stole the show. Does 1500m gold medalist Taoufik Makhloufi ring a bell?

That’s not the only stars in coach Jama Adan’s training group. The always dangerous, yet Jekyll and Hyde Abubaker Kaki and currently unstoppable Genzebe Dibaba are also under his tutelage. Adan is very interesting as he went to Farleigh Dickinson and was later an assistant coach to John Cook (Leo Manzano’s former coach) at George Mason.

If you want to read about Adan’s training, Barry Kitcher wrote a very detailed blog post two years ago about the group.

I’m rating Souleiman high not only because he has natural talent, but because of what he did this time last year. Right now, Souleiman is ranked fifth in the world at 1500m with his 3:32.59 third place finish in Doha.

Almost one year ago, he had already run his personal best and the fourth fastest time in the world at 1500m. He went on to finish third in the Bowerman Mile (3:50.21) and while this isn’t necessarily a reach, I feel as if he may go overlooked by others.


Plus he trains with Makhloufi and crew, so you never know what to expect

Nixon Chepseba

I also thought Chepseba was going to do something incredible this summer in the Olympic 1500m final. Depending on your interpretation of “incredible,” the 3:29.77 man finished one spot in front of his compatriot Asbel Kiprop, who finished dead last. So much for the Kenyan sweep.

He’s only run three races this year (two 1500’s and one 5k, all at altitude), but I still have faith in Chepseba. Why? Last week, he took second at the Police Championships in Nairobi with a time of 3:38.3hA.

You know he ran almost the same time in Nairobi last year the Kenyan Olympic Trials (3:38.0hA) and then about a month later, ran the third fastest time in the world (above).

He’s certainly not in the same shape as when he took second in Monaco, but he has the wheels to make things happen. Plus, I just wanted to include this obscure fact.

 Taoufik Makhloufi

Finally. FINALLY. He's back, but your guess is as good as mine to where the reigning Olympic 1500m champion will finish. Except for showing up on the sidelines in Stockholm to congratulate Souleiman after his 1000m win at the XL-Galan, we haven’t seen Makhloufi at all this year.



According to this interview, he has some high goals this season (sub-3:30 and 1:43), but was actually pretty close to those marks last year. Prior to the Olympic Games, he had run 3:30.80 in Monaco and after he was awarded the gold medal, he ran 1:43.71 in Stockholm. It's not the biggest stretch of the imagination to drop less than a second in both events.

If he’s in comparable shape, then his first race this year shouldn’t be anything too spectacular. After opening up his 2012 outdoor campaign with a second place finish in Rabat (3:34.53), Makhloufi went on to run 3:33.26 on June 7th in Oslo.

Since I literally have no other data or information to make any sort of prediction, I’ll guess that he’s in similar shape this year. That should put him anywhere from fifth to second to last. It's hard to rank him so high, but I'm going to have to cite the x-factor here and overrule any normal statistical analysis.

Collins Cheboi

I wasn’t sure where to put Cheboi, until Nick Willis commented on our Facebook page. You may not be in the race Nick, but your insight is always appreciated.



Silas Kiplagat

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The ‘11 World Champion 1500m silver medalist and defending Diamond League champion has a lot of work to do to get back into his once dominant form. So far this season, we haven’t seen those flashes of brilliance from Kiplagat (this, like his other two countrymen, includes the Olympic Games). After a tenth place finish in Doha (3:34.49), Kiplagat assured everyone that he was rounding into form.

“I had a bad day in London Olympics and failed to win a medal but that’s behind me now, Kiplagat told Standard Digital. “I am in top form like never before and I want to prove myself at the world championships.”

Three days after this article was published, Kiplagat took sixth in Shanghai (3:33.67).

I’m not one to indulge in schadenfreude, but I would like to see him bounce back from that disappointing Olympic final. Still, look for a middle of the road finish for him.

Note by Mitch: I've already received a few messages about why I ranked the Americans so low. Remember how sharp they were in August? It's early June. The goal here is primarily the A followed by any sort of strength-based kick. I'd rather see Centro ninth at Pre than ninth in Moscow. 

Who do you think has the best list on the staff? Who are you're top five? Feel free to write the names of all participants and do a random hat drawing as well. Share your thoughts in the comments section below.