The Memorial Van Damme in Brussels will be the final meet of the Diamond League this season, and if you’ve seen the startlists you understand that it’s a big one. In particular, the men’s 5,000m is going to be outstanding; the flaky top on the proverbial muffin.

Now you’ve likely been losing a fair amount of sleep after seeing the Americans in this race. Thrashing about in cold sweats, head swirling with questions like: “who will be the top American? Can Rupp beat Lagat? What will Goldenboy Jager do? Chris Derrick! Boy Howdy!”

So to ease your minds, if only for a few hours before the race, Flotrack has broken down into percentages which American has the best chance of coming out of this 5,000m the victor. Please keep in mind that this was a very scientific process:

Lagat: 45%

Rupp: 30%:

Jager: 15%

Derrick: 9%

Hill: 1%

Heath: 0%

Let’s break these down into the obvious divisions.

Rupp VS Lagat

Before we start dropping season bests and the well worn "father time has finally caught up with him" let's go to the facts: 9 out of the 11 times that Bernard Lagat and Galen Rupp have raced, Lagat has come out on top. Of the two losses, one of them was on account of Lagat dropping out--so we'll call that Rupp victory a technicality.

Though Rupp showed us during the Indoor season that he does have some punishing footspeed when he ran 3:50.84 at BU, becoming the 5th fastest indoor all time (Lagat's 3rd fastest), that 3:50 speed didn’t do much in the 5k at USAs. That race was a milers race (see Ryan Hill. But we’ll get to that in a second) and even though Lagat hasn't ran 3:50 since 2007, he still thundered past Galen Rupp in Des Moines.

In Moscow they had almost identical closing laps: 55.31 for Lagat and 55.66 for Rupp, but Lagat still narrowed him out by two places and a few hundredths of a second.

Lagat has some sort of mental control over Rupp. Rupp has been faster the past two years, in the mile and 5k, but at the end of the day Rupp gets on the line very much afraid of Bernard Lagat.  

Jager VS Derrick

There's something a lot more laid-back about the Schumaker Boys being in this race. I don’t doubt that they’re looking to run extremely fast--given the nature of the meet--but the expectations are a little bit lower. No one expects them to be rubbing elbows with the 12:50ish Africans, and no one even thinks of them as contenders for the American record. Unlike Galen Rupp, who in my mind may very well have a mental breakdown if he doesn't dip under 13 minutes, these two seem like old High School chums that have somehow stumbled into a world class 5k.

A few years after he breaks an American record we forget that Evan Jager used to be a 5k specialist. But now for the Steeplechase American Record holder, a 5k is a bit of a novelty, even though he’s holstering a 13:14 PR and 7:35 3k PR. His 5k personal best is pretty soft for the credentials he has, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him pop something in the 13:0X range.  

Derrick on the other hand is still a little bit green. Though he did run a very impressive 13:09 at Prefontaine, we'll take Jager's experience cutting rug with the Africans on the world stage over Derricks strength and PR any day.

Everyone Else
Ryan Hill has had a long season. The kid has already had a full collegiate schedule--finishing 9th at NCAAs. Add chasing the standard and World's to the mix and you have Ryan Hill as an absolute non factor. He's had a phenomenal season, but we don't see it happening for him in Brussels.

Garrett Heath: I imagine Heath happened upon a fountain somewhere in Europe, flipped a penny into it, closed his eyes real tight, and wished his way into this meet. Dreams really do come true (He has ran 3:53 for the mile this year--so we’re not totally discrediting him--but this 5k is just a whole other league).
Whether or not any of these predictions are accurate, the race up front and for top American are going to be stupendous. If you don’t watch it for the 5k, then at least use this meet as a sort of fat building phase to tide you over during the long and grueling track and field hibernation.
Editor's Note: Despite being one of the top Americans this year, sadly, Ben True could not get into Brussels.

Unfortunately due to politics I will not be racing @MVDbrussels 5k. Will race 3k @RietiMeeting instead. <13 will have to wait 'til next year

— Ben True (@bentrue) September 4, 2013