It’s hard to imagine this topping last year's epic affair with Kiprop running 3:27.27 and Mo Farah’s 3:28.81 stealing the show in second. Kiprop and Farah are now the fourth and sixth fastest performers ever, Kiprop trailing only Hicham El Guerrouj, Bernard Lagat*, Nourreddine Morceli and with Noah Ngeny sandwiched between Kiprop and Farah.

Men’s 1500 (2:35 Eastern)

ORDER	ATHLETE	NATION	PB	SB	DIAMOND POINTS	DIAMOND RANKING
1	CARVALHO Florian	FRA	3:33.47	3:35.51
2	CRONJE Johan	RSA	3:31.93	3:33.31
3	IGUIDER Abdelaati	MAR	3:31.47	3:32.09
4	INGEBRIGTSEN Henrik	NOR	3:33.68	3:33.68
5	ÖZBILEN Ilham Tanui	TUR	3:31.30	3:32.09
6	CENTROWITZ Matthew	USA	3:31.96	3:32.70
7	WOTE Aman	ETH	3:30.86	3:30.86
8	MANZANO Leonel	USA	3:32.37	3:34.40
9	KIPLAGAT Silas	KEN	3:29.27	3:29.70	8	1
10	SOULEIMAN Ayanleh	DJI	3:30.16	3:30.16	7	2
11	KWEMOI Ronald	KEN	3:31.48	3:31.48	4	4
12	WILLIS Nick	NZL	3:30.35	3:34.72	2	5
13	KIPROP Asbel	KEN	3:27.72	3:29.18	5	3
14	MAGUT James Kiplagat	KEN	3:30.61	3:30.61	1	6
15	ROTICH Andrew Kiptoo	KEN	3:43.43

And yet, from the second the season started, Kiprop has announced his plan to break the world record in Monaco.  He’s clearly backed up that talk—at least from a priorities perspective— by essentially forfeiting the Diamond Race to Silas Kiplagat and structuring his entire season around this race. It would take less than a half-second PB to topple Morceli for #3 on the all-time list (currently 3:27.37); after that, El G has the Monaco track record at 3:27.34.

After that, there are very few historical data points for what Kiprop is trying to do. In Rome, Brussels, Zurich, and Rieti, El G ran between 3:26.00 and 3:27.21 six times from 1998 to 2002. Lagat ran 3:26.34 (the fastest second-place time ever) behind El G in Brussels in 2001. 

And that’s it: The Complete and Total History of People Who Have Run as Fast as Asbel Kiprop is Trying to Run, in just 38 words.

History tells us next to nothing about how Friday’s assault on the clock will go, and Kiprop’s limited season tells us even less.  This is fun— nobody has any idea how fast Friday will be.

Two other men in the field have broken 3:30, but there’s no way they could consider themselves the favorite: they went under in races that they lost to Kiprop. Kiplagat ran 3:29.70 in the “astonishing”  season opener in Doha, and Caleb Ndiku ran 3:29.50 behind Kiprop in Monaco last year. This is actually Ndiku’s first 1500 of 2014.

Kiprop is so good and this field is so loaded that I’ve made it this far without mentioning Matt Centrowitz or Ayanleh Souleiman. Like Kiprop, Centrowitz has structured much of his season around running fast here; Lagat’s 3:29.30 American record is probably a little out of reach**, and a new PR (preferably under 3:31) would seemingly satisfy Centro.

Souleiman beat Kiplagat, Kiprop, and Centrowitz with his outrageous 3:47.32 mile at Prefontaine, the fastest mile ever run on American soil.  A month ago, it seemed like Souleiman might be the best 1500 runner in the world, but he’s raced very sparingly in the seven weeks since Pre. We’ll see if he can pull off the upset on Friday night.

Editor's Note: "Upset" depends on your perspective. Kiprop is a risky bet with a high payout, but Souleiman is the safer choice because of his consistency. It is Monaco, after all, and the casino will be accepting everyone's money.

*It’s almost incomprehensible that Lagat ran 3:26.34 thirteen years ago.
**Kiprop is closer to the WR (1.72 seconds) than Centro is to the AR (2.66 seconds).