Across the world in Berlin on Sunday, Shalane Flanagan will try to do what no other American woman has ever done, that is run below 2:19:36 in the marathon. That time of course is the current American record held by Deena Kastor, set in 2006 at the London Marathon. Flanagan set her PR of 2:22:02 at April’s Boston Marathon, where she placed 7th. 

Although Flanagan will have to cut 2:26 off her current personal best, the race in Berlin is built for fast times, as the flat course has yielded the last five men’s world records in the marathon. Flanagan’s focus will be running 5:19/mile for the 26.2 mile distance, as opposed to covering moves or surging to respond to the actual race. Flanagan’s training to prepare for this race has reportedly gone very well, and in August she placed a close 2nd to Gemma Steel at the Beach to Beacon 10k. 

To help accomplish her specific goal, Flanagan will enlist the help of Ryan Vail (2:10:57) and Rob Watson (2:13:29) to pace her through at least 20 miles, as Berlin allows male pacesetters to help elite women. After the 20-mile mark, Flanagan’s position in the race and whether or not she is on pace to break the record will determine when the pacers drop off. 

If Flanagan manages to break the American record, or run close to it, she could be in contention to win the race. Other elite women in the field include 2013 Paris Marathon champ Fayese Tadese and Tirfi Tsegaye, the latter of which set her 2:21:19 at the 2012 Berlin Marathon. 

For Flanagan, this race will have entirely separate meaning from the Boston Marathon, where she was focused on winning in front of a home crowd. Flanagan doesn’t have the personal connection with Berlin as she does with Boston, but that may be the perfect scenario for her to do something special on Sunday. It was evident that a victory on Boylston Street would have meant the world to Flanagan, but her emotions may have deterred her from running as well as she could have. Berlin won’t carry the same weight as her last marathon, and that will be the difference as Flanagan establishes a new American record on Sunday.

Prediction: Tadese wins in 2:19:20 but Flanagan steals the headlines with a brand new AR of 2:19:28. 

The men’s race in Berlin will be also take a shot at the record books, and this time it could be an assault on the world record. Last year’s winner Wilson Kipsang ran 2:03:23 to set the current record, and although he won’t be in Berlin, the field on Sunday is more than capable of running fast without him. Kenyan Dennis Kimetto enters as a favorite, as he boasts the 3rd fastest marathon all-time, the 2:03:45 he ran to win last year’s Chicago Marathon. 

Kimetto will be joined by the reigning World Marathon Majors (WMM) champion Tsegaye Kebede of Ethiopia, who has run 2:04:38 and owns an Olympic bronze medal from Beijing. Kebede is the current WMM leader, and a win on Sunday would go a long way towards him winning two titles in a row. 

Prediction: Kimetto and Kebede will battle for two hours before the former separates himself over the final 1K. No world record, but Kimetto wins an entertaining race in 2:04:10