Perhaps the greatest marathoner of this generation will take to Michigan Ave. this Sunday to try to accomplish something that no human ever has. Rita Jeptoo will run the Chicago Marathon on Sunday with her sights set on winning her fourth consecutive major marathon, after winning Boston in 2013 and 2014, as well as winning this marathon a year ago. At stake is the World Marathon Majors title, which comes with a tidy $500,000 prize, as well as the $100,000 first place check that Chicago offers. Although Jeptoo’s primary goal is to take home her second consecutive victory in Chicago, even a 2nd place finish in Chicago would guarantee her the WMM title as she would win a tiebreaker because of her head-to-head record against Edna Kiplagat. Jeptoo’s PR of 2:18:57 was set at April’s Boston Marathon, and that time is 47 seconds clear of anyone else in the field. 

Although Jeptoo will be heavily favored, a young challenger waits in the shadows with plans to ruin Jeptoo’s party. Florence Kiplagat is one of the only East Africans who dabble in both the track and the marathon, and her last race was the 10,000m at the Commonwealth Games, where she earned the silver medal. Kiplagat has brilliant range, having set the half marathon world record of 65:12 earlier this year in Barcelona. Her PR of 2:19:44 is three years old, and all signs point to her running quicker than that on Sunday. It should be interesting to see how Kiplagat and Jeptoo mix it up since this will be the first time they have raced together, but we believe Jeptoo will have a marked advantage in this their first meeting. 

Oftentimes, especially fast half marathoners struggle when the distance is doubled, and that may be Kiplagat’s conundrum. Her marathon world record suggests that she should be among the best in the world over 26.2, yet her record against the two other female marathon studs, Edna Kiplagat and Priscah Jeptoo is a lowly 1-5. One factor on her side is age, however, as Florence Kiplagat is only 27 and has yet to reach her peak marathon age. 

Not to be forgotten is the 24-year old Ethiopian, Mare Dibaba. Dibaba joins Jeptoo and Kiplagat as the only runners with sub 2:20 PRs in the field, her 2:19:52 from  the 2012 Dubai Marathon. Dibaba was one of three women to dip under the previous course record at the 2014 Boston Marathon, running 2:20:35, and she has been the model of consistency of late, having won the Xiamen Marathon in January, and of course placing 3rd at Boston. Just like anyone who races Rita Jeptoo, however, Dibaba has been demolished by Ms. Jeptoo in every race they have competed together, the latest coming at the Bogota Half Marathon in July where Jeptoo beat Dibaba by nearly two minutes. It will take some fortune for the Ethiopian to beat both Jeptoo and Kiplagat on Sunday, and she would do well to place third and secure a new PR in the Windy City. 

The Americans
Amy Hastings headlines a small group of Americans that may represent the post-Kara Goucher and Shalane Flanagan era in women’s marathoning. Hastings has tremendous range, and she has put that on full display in 2014 with her third place finish in the 10k at USA Outdoors, as well her most recent race, a second place showing at the US 20k Championships, where she ran 1:08:54 to finish just 20 seconds behind training partner and American record holder Molly Huddle. 

Hastings has yet to put it all together in the marathon, but all that could change on Sunday based off her recent results as well as fresh legs. This will be Hastings first 26.2 since New York last November, and all signs point to her running faster than her three year old PR of 2:27:03. 

Also representing the Red, White and Blue will be Clara Santucci, a 27-year old with a 2:29:54 PR which she set at the 2011 Boston Marathon, which of course was the race where Geoffrey Mutai’s world record of 2:03:02 was disallowed due to a strong tailwind and point to point layout. Santucci’s time there may have been faster than her true fitness, but she will be coming off of a victory at the 2014 Pittsburgh Marathon in May, which she won in 2:32:25. Santucci will shoot for another sub 2:30 on Sunday, and her prospects seem reasonable given that she finished as the top American here last year in 2:31:39. 

Lisa Uhl will also be one to watch for as this will be her marathon debut. The 2012 Olympian has a 10,000m PR of 31:12, set in London, but this race will be the culmination of a semi-comeback for the 27 year old. Uhl has struggled since moving back to Des Moines after her successful stint with Bowerman Track Club coach Jerry Schumacher, and it’s tough to know what to expect from her on Sunday. Uhl’s half marathon PR is her 73:28 from Houston 2013, but doubling the distance will present an entirely different challenge for her in Chicago. The former Iowa State star would do well to run under 2:35. 

Predictions: In a race with this much at stake, Rita Jeptoo will shine bright at Millennium Park. Her two minute victory over Dibaba in Bogota proves that her dominance will continue, and she should have no problem disposing of challenger Florence Kiplagat over the final 10k. She will not break Paula Radcliffe’s astounding 2:17:18 course record, but Jeptoo will run a new PR of 2:18:30. 

For top American honors, Amy Hastings will be far and away the best on Sunday. She is confident that she can run faster than her 2:27:03 PR, and so are we. Hastings runs 2:26:40.