Watch Who's #1 PAC-12 Edition

Just a glance at the Saucony Flo50 individual rankings shows the overwhelming presence of the PAC-12. Ten runners from the nation’s best conference are among the top 15, and that number has even been cut down by the loss of Jim Rosa to season ending knee surgery. 

The most eye-popping stat is the appearance of five Colorado Buffaloes in the top-13, a number certainly warranted after their domination at Pre-Nats. The #1 ranked Buffs won’t be touched by any team at PAC 12s, but we’re more interested to see how low they can go in a race against #6 Stanford and #7 Oregon. Can they drop something below 30 points like the did last year (28 points) even with new low sticks Maksim Korolev (#2) and Eric Jenkins (#5) in the field? That may be tough, even though this is the best Colorado squad ever. 

In an attempt to determine how the deepest conference race will play out, we’ve taken the liberty of predicting the race out to 25 places, as those spots will most likely dictate where the top three teams will place and how many points they will score. Of course, all of this is conjecture but we’re basing our predictions off of recent history (Wisco/Pre-Nats) and last year’s PAC 12 meet, where Colorado torched the field in Boulder. 

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To dive further into these predictions, we’re going to discuss each segment of five finishers briefly, and talk about why we think these individuals will finish in that spot. Spoiler alert! Edward Cheserek will win, and Colorado will dominate.  Here’s an in-depth look at the deepest race this weekend.

The Top 5 

1. Edward Cheserek (UO): The best runner in the country will head to PAC-12s with six consecutive XC wins in his back pocket. No one can match his speed at the end of a race. 

2. Maksim Korolev (STAN): Big Mak enters his first PAC 12 meet confident after his win at Wisco. Korolev is built for cross country, but he takes second because, well, it’s King Ches. 

3. Blake Theroux (CU): Theroux is having a dream season for the Buffs, and his 2nd place at Pre-Nats left him just two seconds behind the King. He will battle Korolev for the 2nd spot. 

4. Eric Jenkins (UO): The track superstar has worked well with his Oregon teammate the last two races. He’ll have to fend off a lot of Buffaloes in order secure some valuable points for the Ducks. 

5. Ben Saarel (CU): This is the same spot that Saarel finished at last year’s PAC 12 meet. He always closes hard, and at Pre-Nats he made up 11 spots in the last 3k to finish 4th. 

Recap: Colorado (2 in top 5), Oregon (2 in top 5), Stanford (1 in top 5)

Spots 6-10

6. Joe Rosa (STAN): Stanford needs Rosa to be better than he was at Wisco. In a race that won’t be as tactical, Rosa is too talented (13:31 5k) to not find his way into the top six. 

7. Aaron Nelson (UW): We were tempted to put Nelson higher after his 3rd place finish at Wisco, but look at the names ahead of him. 

8. Ammar Moussa (CU): Moussa has been the key to all the “best Colorado team ever” talk. His eighth place finish at Pre-Nats makes him look like a top 20 contender for NCAAs. 

9. Jake Hurysz (CU): The Buffs scored 28 points at PAC 12s WITHOUT Hurysz. What magic can they put together WITH the 2012 All-American? 

10. Pierce Murphy (CU): Murphy is so consistent. Oh wait, everyone at Colorado is consistent. But Murphy seems to never have an off day, and he should repeat his top 10  PAC-12 finish from 2013. 

Recap: Colorado (All 5 in top 10- 35 points) Stanford (2 in top 10) Oregon (2 in top 10)

Spots 11-15

11. Nick Hartle (UCLA): The 1:47 800m stud has shown well on the XC course of late, most notably a 15th place finish at the stacked Wisco Invite. Part of a quartet of Bruins that finished 9-10-11-12 at the UW Invite. 

12. Connor Winter (CU): How ridiculous is it that the Buffaloes’ 6th man is in the 12th slot? And Winter could finish higher, seeing that he was 4th at PAC 12s last year. 

13. Daniel Winn (UO): Winn ran decently at Pre-Nats, finishing 19th, but it was his 5th place at the Battle in Beantown that really impressed us. Coming in at 13th would really help the Ducks fight off Stanford in the team battle. 

14. Jonah Diaz (UCLA): Was the Bruins 2nd runner at the UW Invite, and finished a respectable 34th at the tactical race at Wisco.

15. Sean McGorty (STAN): The wildcard. We haven’t seen him at all this season, but it’s impossible to deny a freshman who ran 13:37 on the track. He had one great race last fall (5th at Pre-Nats), and a few duds (DNF at PAC-12s, 162nd at NCAAs).

Recap: Oregon (3 in top 15) Stanford (3 in top 15) UCLA (2 in top 15)

Spots 16-20

16. Chris Walden (CAL): Finished an impressive 4th at Griak, just one second behind Michigan State All-American Caleb Rhynard. 

17. Tanguy Pepiot (UO): Has to run better than he did at Pre-Nats (26th) for the Ducks to beat Stanford. We think he will. 8:33 steeple talent just doesn’t go away.

18. Ferdinand Edman (UCLA): The Bruins 3rd man at Wisco, placing 45th. He was 36th at PAC 12s last year.

19. Garrett Sweatt (STAN): Will the real Garrett Sweatt please standup? 8th at the UW Invite, but 58th at Wisco, Sweatt should regain his early season form in a faster race at PAC 12s.

20. Cameron Miller (STAN): Miller ran alright at Wisco (78th), but nothing special. Since a few Stanford guys had off days at that race, we think he’ll have a comeback at PAC-12s. After all, he was 29th at UW. 

Note: If UCLA's Daniel Herrera runs, this is the position we will reserve for him. He was 23rd at PAC 12s last year, but has yet to run in 2014. His appearance in this race could shake up the fight for second between Oregon, Stanford, and UCLA. If he runs, bump everyone behind him, including Miller, down a place. 

Recap: Stanford (All 5 in top 20- 62 points) Oregon (4 in top 20) UCLA (3 in top 20)

Spots 21-25

21. Sam Prakel (UO): Prakel had an off day at Pre-Nats (83rd) where he fell back 52 places after 5k. His 6th place finish at the Battle in Beantown shows that it was just an off day. 

22. Jack Keelan (STAN): Keelan was another Stanford runner who ran poorly at Wisco. Since he ran well at UW (14th), we’re chalking up the Wisco debacle to jet-lag. 

23. Izaic Yorks (UW): The sub-4 miler is starting to find his XC legs. Had an impressive 15th place finish at the UW Invite that indicates he should improve on his 38th place finish at 2013 PAC-12s. 

24. Lane Werley (UCLA): Werley was 25th at the 2012 NCAA XC Championships, but we didn’t see him at all last fall, presumably out with injury. His 9th place finish at the UW Invite suggests he is returning to his 2012 form. 

25. Sergey Sushchickh (UCLA): Finished 12th at the UW Invite, fourth among the quartet of Bruins that occupied places 9-12. Bumped down to 25th because of his subpar day at Wisco. 

Recap: Oregon: *(All 5 in top 25- 56 points)* UCLA (All 5 in top 25- 92 points)

*Oregon beats Stanford 56-62

Final Team Results: 1.Colorado- 35 pts, 2.Oregon- 56 pts, 3. Stanford- 62 pts 4. UCLA 92 pts*

*Prediction based on UCLA running without Herrera. 

Summary: It should come as no surprise that Colorado will dominate PAC 12s, given the tear they have been on for more than a year. The Buffs ran unbelievably at the Rocky Mountain Shootout, and backed that up will another jaw-dropper at Pre-Nats. With the addition of low-sticks Maksim Korolev and Eric Jenkins to this race, the Buffaloes won’t repeat their stunning 28 point performance from last season, but scoring 35 points this year could be even more impressive given the depth of this conference. 

We’re projecting the biggest story of this race to be Oregon taking down Stanford, a team that had national title hopes before the loss of Jim Rosa. Both Oregon and Stanford’s 3-5 runners ran poorly at Pre-Nats and Wisco, respectively, but we expect better performances from such runners as Garrett Sweatt and Sam Prakel in the California conditions. 

While we’re predicting Oregon to take down Stanford, it should be noted that Berkeley is only a short hour drive from Palo Alto. Stanford’s home field advantage could be enough to just slip past the Ducks in a tight team battle for 2nd.