By: Scott Rodilitz, @FloRodilitz

The 2015 NCAA D3 Championships are upon us, with plenty of drama about to unfold. The 3k looks like the best race of the weekend, but for those of you interested in the annuall debate about the conversions, pay special attention to the 800, 5k, and DMR. All of the favorites in those three events qualified on BU’s banked track. If those favorites win handily, that provides some convincing evidence that the conversions are a bit too severe. If, however, those favorites falter, then those banked track times may still be a bit inflated.

 

Men’s Mile, Saturday, 1:40 pm ET

Four of the seven fastest milers on the season opted for different events, leaving two freshmen as the top seeds this weekend. Late-blooming Isaac Garcia-Cassani  of SUNY Geneseo comes in as the top seed after his massive personal best at a last chance meet sent him from out of the top fifteen into pole position. Garcia-Cassani improved from a 4:41 junior all the way down to 4:10 as a high school senior, and that fast progression seems to have continued into his first collegiate season. 

 

Meanwhile, second seeded Roberto Lara of UW Oskosh is a freshman only in terms of eligibility. A junior college transfer from the County of Lake College, Lara has been unbeatable in the mile this season. Performance-wise, he looks like the second coming of McKena Ramos, last year’s UW Oskosh freshman who won the indoor 800 and the outdoor 1500 before transferring to UW Madison.

 

Because so many top milers scratched, there are really only two other contenders for the title despite the lack of an overwhelming favorite.  Both Paul Escher of St. Olaf and Eli Horton of Central College have been middle distance All-Americans and look to be in decent shape again this year. Escher finished second to Ramos in the 1500 last year, while Horton has been fourth in the mile, 3k, and 5k during his collegiate career.

 

Predictions: Lara, Escher, Garcia-Cassani

 

Men’s 800m, Saturday, 3:55 pm ET

Though Mitchell Black of Tufts comes in as the top seed by over a second and a half, don’t expect his first national title to come easily. Black, the runner-up outdoors, has yet to win an 800 this year, and he faces a field that includes seven other 800 meter All-Americans. To claim his first title, he will have to vanquish them all, including the man who denied him the outdoor title: Andrew Carey of Johns Hopkins.

 

No one other than Black has looked particularly impressive this season, but the sheer volume of capable adversaries in an event as unpredictable as the indoor 800 makes me want to bet the field. Only three runners in the field will be competing in a national 800 meet for the first time, but one of those three—freshman Jeremy Hernandez of Ramapo—might be the biggest threat. He has quickly proven himself as a middle-distance phenom, although he will have to divide his efforts here and on the anchor leg of the Roadrunners’ DMR.

 

Of the veterans, fifth seeded Daniel Bonthius of Wartburg looks most capable of pulling off a shocking upset. He is lightly raced this season but has shown impressive speed—his 49.13 would have qualified him for the open 400. Similarly, thirteenth seed Thomas Vandenburg of Carnegie Mellon has run 48.90 this season, but he will be trying to pull off the difficult double.

 

Predictions: Black, Hernandez, Bonthius

 

Men’s 5,000m, Friday, 5:50 pm ET

After accounting for a third of the 5k field last year, North Central again qualified five in the top 15. Yet once again, only one of those Cardinalslooks like a title contender—this time its Travis Morrison instead of last year’s champ John Crain. To keep the 5k title with the Cardinals, Morrison will have to face off with Jake Campbell of St. Olaf. In cross country, Morrison had the edge, as he beat Campbell by two spots and his team beat the Oles by thirteen. However, Campbell has a slight edge in the speed department with a 4:10 personal best, assuming both he and Morrison are in contention until the final laps.

 

Top seeded Matt Gianino of RIT will be looking to upstage the two stars from more well-known programs. Gianino has developed nicely in his four years at RIT, and the former miler is one of the only other members of the field that has the speed to close with Morrison and Campbell. 

 

Expect seven time All-American Patrick Jenkins of UW Stout to make a bid for his first ever national title, while fast-closing Nate Routhier will want to get revenge after a DQ cost him the WIAC title in the 5k. Fellow WIAC competitor Ian LaMere of UW Platteville deserves mention as the top cross country finisher in the field (5^th place), but he barely managed to qualify at a last chance meet this past weekend and does not look as dangerous as he has in years past.

 

Predictions: Morrison, Routhier, Campbell

 

Men’s DMR, Friday, 6:30 pm ET

The last time Amherst sent a record-holding DMR to nationals—back in 2011—they ended up dead last and lapped. However, there is reason to believe that this year they can make New England proud. Unlike in 2011, this team will be entirely fresh, and all three mid-distance legs are veterans of last year’s ninth place DMR. Amherst anchor Greg Turissini should have a lead when he gets the baton, and he is experienced enough to use that lead to his advantage rather than turn it into a kicker’s race. If you gamble, though, it may be best to bet the field: the Lord Jeffs will face a massive challenge from the Midwest.

 

The defending champs from Central College come in as the third seed, but anchor Eli Horton will be doubling back from the mile this year. Instead, Amherst’s biggest challenge may come from North Central. In the recent past, the Cardinals have focused on individual events at the expense of their DMR, but this year they seem focused on the title. Anchor Aron Sebhat is one of the best in the field, and he should be able to kick with anyone. 

 

In addition, five schools from the WIAC will have relay squads at the meet, led by UW Oshkosh and anchor Roberto Lara. Though the Titans have the best seed amongst the WIAC schools, Lara will also be doubling back from the mile trials. If he falters, look for anchors Dawson Miller of UW Whitewater and Josh Thorson of UW Eau Claire to take his place at the front of the pack.

 

Predictions: Amherst, Oshkosh, North Central

 

Men’s 3,000m, Saturday, 4:25 pm ET

Top seeded Charlie Marquardt of Haverford is the division’s fastest miler, but he is focused entirely on bringing home the coveted 3k title. Grant Wintheiser of St. Olaf won the cross country title, and he will also be fresh for the highly anticipated clash between these two titans. Though they face a tough field, they have set themselves apart this season and will put on a great show this Saturday. 

 

Marquardt has the slight edge in the speed department—he is the faster miler and won his conference 800 title over defending national champ Andrew Carey. However, Wintheiser crushed Marquardt and the rest of the field at nationals, so consider the two on an even playing field headed into the race.

 

Though I expect this to eventually develop into a two-man race, the rest of the field is no joke. DMR anchors Josh Thorson of UW Eau Claire, Dawson Miller of UW Whitewater, Aron Sebhat of North Central, and Greg Turissini of Amherst are slated to do battle again on Saturday. Likewise, all of the major 5k contenders will get another shot at each other—Matt Gianino of RIT, Patrick Jenkins of UW Stout, Jake Campbell of St. Olaf, Travis Morrison of North Central, and Nate Routhier of UW La Crosse. Of these big names, the lightly raced Thorson seems most dangerous. He dominated a stellar field at the WIAC Championships, beating Miller, Routhier, and Jenkins in that order.

 

Predictions: Wintheiser, Marquardt, Thorson

 

Team Title

As has become the new normal, WIAC schools will once again battle it out for the top slot. After three consecutive top three finishes without a title to show for it, this looks like the year for UW Eau Claire. The Blugolds have a healthy Thurgood Dennis back in the mix, and are projected to score a crushing 62 points. However, with only twelve entries and three top seeds, they don’t have that much room for error. Waiting in the wings to capitalize on any opportunity are in-state rivals UW La Crosse and UW Oshkosh. With fifteen entries, La Crosse has the most opportunities to score points, but based on seeds the Eagles will be nearly 20 short of UW Eau Claire. Meanwhile, an uncharacteristically small contingent from UW Oshkosh will be locked in a battle for the fourth and final podium spot.

 

The outdoor champs from Mt. Union are the only non-WIAC school in title contention, based mainly on the strength of Sean Donnelly and the speed of Tyler Mettille. Their 38 projected points have them ranked third by the USTFCCCA. North Central is ranked fourth by the slimmest of margins over UW Oshkosh, but the Cardinals will need a lot of points from their 5k contingent that they frankly can’t count on.

 

It has been nearly a decade since a Northeastern team has been on the podium, and Bridgewater State would never have been anyone’s guess to break the streak. However, they are projected to score 31 points and have an outside shot at a fourth place team finish especially if Andrew Sukeforth can capitalize on a relatively weak mile field.

 

Predictions: UW Eau Claire, UW La Crosse, Mt. Union, UW Oshkosh