Men’s 10,000m (Wednesday, 6:43pm)

With warm temperatures expected tonight in Eugene, any notion of an honest pace in the men’s 10,000m is likely out the window. That’s perfectly fine with the heavily favored Oregon duo of Edward Cheserek and Eric Jenkins, who would love nothing more than for this race to be slow for the first five miles so they can conserve energy for Friday’s 5K. As everyone knows, a slow early pace makes for a fast finish, and nobody does that better than the two Ducks.

 

Edward Cheserek is the defending champion in this event, and he’s favored accordingly even though Jenkins presents a tough challenge. Last year, Cheserek stayed patient behind the leaders as Kennedy Kithuka set a modest tempo, waiting until the final 200 meters to strike. 

 

Cheserek blew away Shadrack Kipchirchir in the last 200 with the raw speed that is now his trademark, but tonight he’ll have to outrun his buddy Jenkins, which could prove to be difficult. This will be Jenkins first 10K final, but as we saw indoors, where he won both the 5K and 3K, Jenkins’ closing speed is not too far off Cheserek. The senior recently set a mile PB of 3:57, and his best shot to beat his sophomore teammate is to ramp up the pace with 600/800 to go instead of simply going at 200 out.  

Eric Jenkins swept NCAA indoor titles in the 5K and 3K, the latter over Cheserek

The pick still has to be Cheserek, though, as he is simply faster than everyone else when he gets into his top gear. The best case scenario as a fan is for this race to be competitive over the last lap, and fireworks should be expected from the two Ducks if that holds true. 

 

The race for third should be a dog fight. BYU’s Jason Witt ran the fastest time in 2015 of 27:54, but that race was a time trial and doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll survive a yo-yo pace tonight. Witt will have to fend off  Syracuse’s Martin Hehir, who kicked hard to a second place finish at the Stanford Invite 10K, beating a majority of the men he’ll face tonight in Eugene. 

 

Women’s 10,000m (Thursday, 6:38pm)

Similar to the men’s race, two names stand out above the rest of the field. Those are Arkansas’ Dominique Scott and Boise State’s Emma Bates, the latter of which is the defending champion in this event. With both Emily Sisson and Kate Avery only entered in the 5K, Scott and Bates are left to duke it out on Thursday, and given their nearly identical PBs of 32:11 (Scott) and 32:13 (Bates), this should be quite the battle. 

Dominique Scott will run her first NCAA 10K final on Thursday night

Whereas the men’s race is expected to be brutally tactical, the women’s race should work out to be a lot more honest. Bates’ winning time a year ago was 32:32, which was only 12 seconds off her then-PB of 32:20. Expect the Boise State senior to control the pace, because she does not want it to become a sit-and-kick against the wheels of Scott. The Razorback has 4:32 mile speed, of which Bates is no match. 

 

My pick is Scott, as she has been on fire throughout 2015. After anchoring Arkansas’ winning DMR squad and doubling back in the 3K, the senior proved her ridiculous range by running 32:11 in her 10K debut. Bates won’t make it easy, however, and the Hayward crowd should be in for a treat tomorrow.