Boys Sweepstakes

Phillip Rocha (Arcadia) is the top returning 5K runner in the state and the defending Division 1 champion, and he will take on the #2 returner, Eduardo Herrera (Madera South), in this race. The only thing that could make this better would be the presence of defending Woodbridge champ Austin Tamagno, but he has opted to open his season later this year. 

Those two will try to break away from the rest of the field, but they will be met with resistance from Great Oak's Spencer Dodds, who opened the fall season well after coming off of a strong track season. We will also get to see arguably the most-improved runner of the year so far this season, Steven Khan (Ayala), who won the Great Cow Run 3-Miler over Robbie Santoyo (Bishop Amat). 

Nobody improved more than Dillon Beckum (Bonita) during the spring, as he eventually reached 4:09 for 1600; will that translate to the course this weekend? Another guy to watch is Hector Garcia (Marshall), who had a monster 3-Mile time in October of last fall, 5th-fastest in California (he also ranks in the top 15 among 5K runners). Jorge Suarez (Santa Ana) won on a much more challenging 3 Mile course at Laguna Hills last weekend.

Winning the award for longest trip: Devyn Keith (Curtis Christian LA) brings a sub-15 time across the country from Louisiana, where he is the top returner in the state at 3 Miles.

One of the interesting subtexts to this race will be the battle of the #2 runners, because several of these teams have more than one legitimate top-10 guy. US #8 Great Oak has Isaac Cortes, who seemed to struggle a bit in his first meet two weeks ago; this would be a good race for the 4:08 miler, who ran 14:17 here to finish 7th in 2014, to get back on track.

Madera South (US #21) has its own "super second" in Miguel Villar, who is the 5th-fastest returner in California and finished 10th in the Division 1 state meet. You can include Desert Hills (UT) in this category, too, as their front-running duo of Jaiden Melendrez and Joshua Thatcher are the top 2 returners in their state at 3-Miles, which is the standard distance in Utah.

So it's no coincidence that the top three teams in the virtual meet (using returning 2014 times) are the same teams we just listed; those elite second men make their squads very formidable. You can add Mountain Vista (CO) to the list of potential trophy-winners, too; they don't run 3-Mile courses, but the "bubble team" in our Saucony Flo50 rankings is also the #1 returning 5K team in Colorado. Using returning times, you can also put Agoura into the pool of possible top-5 teams, although the Chargers didn't get to race at the Seaside Invitational because the last 3 races were canceled due to extreme heat. You certainly have to believe Arcadia will be in the mix, too; the Dragons have only raced once, without their #1 runner on the tough Laguna Hills course, so a full-strength race on the quick Orange County Great Park course should be a big jump forward for them.

There are a few California teams in this race that are looking for greater respect, and they have the opportunity to earn it by making a splash here this weekend. Ayala certainly fits the bill, and you might even put Bishop Amat in this category; both teams have had a good early season so far, but haven't faced this level of competition yet. West Torrance is another squad looking to earn credibility, and they look good in the returning rankings, but the Warriors did not run well in their first meet. 

We ranked King #9 in California in our Preseason Countdown, with West Torrance 10th,Canyon (Anaheim Hills) 11th, and Agoura 12th, so this could be an early battle for spots in the top 10 in our first team rankings, coming out in two weeks.

Girls Sweepstakes

Desert Vista (AZ) makes the trip to SoCal to take on Great Oak. If that seems familiar to you, it's because that just happened two weeks ago, for the Cool Breeze Invitational. US #1 Great Oak won that showdown without Destiny Collins, and they'll be without her again this weekend as she gets some of her recruiting trips out of the way in the early season. 

The Wolfpack has proven to be strong enough to win without her, as Evelyn Mandel is more than capable of filling the #1 spot. Desert Vista (US #7) would love to get one back on Great Oak, and with Baylee Jones driving the pace up front it's certainly possible; using 2015 times, the Thunder is only a 14-point underdog coming into this race, according to our virtual meet.

Lurking behind those two teams is Serrano, considered a "bubble team" in our Saucony Flo50 rankings - the Diamondbacks would almost certainly propel themselves into the top 25 with a strong performance against two top-10 squads. If Serrano can't engage the front two teams, though, they might find themselves in a difficult battle to hold onto third place: Arcadia, Canyon (Anaheim Hills), Clovis North, and Capistrano all have significant firepower. Oh, one more thing - don't believe the ranking for Sunset (OR) in the virtual meet, as they don't run 3 Mile courses often. The Apollos have the top returning team in Oregon, according to our database, and could break into the top 5 here.

Looking a little deeper, we tagged Arcadia's girls as a potential surprise top-10 team in California this year based on strong track results, so this is the Dragons' first of many chances to show their improvement. Buchanan and Trabuco Hills were also in the top 20 of our Preseason Countdown, and both should be looking to establish their credentials in this early test.

Individually, the lead pack could be pretty intense, with Mandel and Jones challenged by several runners capable of taking home the win. After winning the Seaside Invitational in heat so intense it caused the cancellation of the last three races, Moorpark's Michelle Magnani (in green above) has to be considered the favorite to cross the line first. Burbank's Candela Fernandez had the state's 4th-best 5K time last year, while Amanda Gehrich (Tesoro) moved into the top tier nationally with an impressive string of 1600/mile races in May and June; both are making their season debuts this weekend. 

The same is true of Ally Palomino (Bishop Amat), who hasn't gotten the chance to race yet this season due to an unfortunate series of minor illnesses. This is a tough race to use as your season opener, but Palomino has great experience on this course - she ran 16:46 here last year, finishing 6th. Among out-of-state runners, Allie Chipman (Mountain Vista CO) clocked 17:52 at NXN SW last November, and she already has a 17:55 on her profile this season. The Canyon duo of Sara Leonard and Nicole Zielinski have started off 2015 very strong, finishing just behind Mandel and Jones at Cool Breeze. Lauren Moffett (Clovis North) could be a sleeper here - she finished 19th in this event last fall, but she had a very strong track season.

Rated Boys

California High (Whittier) wanted into the Sweepstakes race, and they weren't shy about saying so over the weekend:
 

The thing is, they may have been right. With three sub-15 guys already this season, the Condors won the Great Cow Run varsity race, and they are predicted to win big here according to our database. El Toro has the best returning squad among the Rated teams, with Warren and Beaumont close behind.San Juan Hills and Fountain Valley have both started off the 2015 season well, and would like to validate that with a good performance in this race. Don't put it past the Great Oak "B" team to be a threat in this race - the Wolfpack put 30+ returning runners under 5 minutes during a monstrous track season, including a "second seven" that were all between 4:32 and 4:37 (not to mention 15 guys faster than 10:15).

California High is powered by the trio of Angel Aguirre, Cisco Cuellar, and Julian Romero, and they very well could go 1-2-3 in this race. William Hua (Fountain Valley) will try to break them up, as willAndrew Witt (Buena), who has the top 3 Mile PR in the field. Another interesting pair of runners to watch will be Allen Siegler and Niko Chapman of University City.

Rated Girls

Even with their 8-14 runners in the race, Great Oak is a serious threat to win (not surprising considering their amazing depth during this past track season, when their 14th girl ran 5:26 and 11:50). The only team in this race with better current times is Chino Hills, who had a strong showing at Cool Breeze with the 4th-best accumulation of times in the meet.

Looking at returning times, Great Oak is even more dominant, holding a huge lead over a large cluster of teams that may end up fighting for 3rd place. That could include West Torrance and Beaumont in addition to Chino Hills, and maybe a handful of other teams, as well.

The individual battle here will go deep, as there is a fairly large number of legitimate candidates to win among the entered teams. Kailie Grimes (Beaumont) has the best returning 3 Mile time in the field, having run sub-17 at this meet last year. Oak Park's Brittany Blackwell and Emily Beneduce have run in the low 17's in the past, and they could be in the lead pack this weekend. Another duo, Erin Holton and Brittani Matthews (Rancho Cucamonga), had a solid start to the year at Cool Breeze, and that experience could pay off here. Alex Calegari (Poway) came away with the win and the fastest time at last weekend's Laguna Hills Invitational, and that course should make Orange County Great Park feel like a breeze.