D1 NCAA Northeast XC RegionalNov 11, 2015 by Lincoln Shryack
Your Comprehensive 2015 NCAA Regionals Guide!
Your Comprehensive 2015 NCAA Regionals Guide!
TEAM PROJECTIONS | RESULTS | PICKS | PREDICTION CONTEST
FloTrack presents our comprehensive 2015 NCAA Cross Country Regional Preview, compiled by our writing staff of Meg Bellino, Taylor Dutch, and Lincoln Shryack. Enjoy!This is the final dress rehearsal before the big show. Either that, or it’s the end of the road.
With conference weekend a distant memory and NCAAs little over a week away, Regional qualifying takes center stage this Friday across the country at nine separate locations with hundreds of teams vying for one of the 31 National Championship spots awarded on both the men’s and women’s side of D1 cross country. With the completion of each race, the NCAA picture will gradually become clearer as auto spots are earned and subsequently at-large bids determined, with a full season of Kolas points making or breaking the fates of otherwise worthy participants.
The imbalance of power across the regions makes for a less-than-perfect selection process, but you gotta play the cards you’re dealt, and this is all we’ve got. Some teams will grab autos on Friday in the weakest sections (I’m looking at you, South Central) that wouldn’t make Nationals otherwise, which arguably leaves better teams at home. Such is the case with a system lacking any semblance of equal distribution across the regions, but again, this is beside the point. Rules are rules.
To steal some wise words from our friends at the MLB, “this time it counts,” as the majority of teams and athletes will see their seasons come to an end after this weekend. However, for those select few who will move on to Louisville for the grand finale, Regionals is ideally just a precursor to what will be a team/individual’s best performance at NCAAs. Of course, it doesn’t always work out that way, especially since fringe qualifiers will be going all-in, i.e. peaking, to secure their spot. But once again, I digress.
Reminder, the top two teams from each region will automatically advance, which leaves just 13 at-large bids available for everyone else. Several of these spots are all but locked down by the big regular season point scorers from the tough regions, so really there are just a handful of spots ripe for the picking among the true bubble teams. These are exciting times, people.
Regionals will decide all of this, and for the second consecutive year, FloTrack will be LIVE all day Friday for our Kolas Show, your go-to spot to see who’s in and who’s out as results pour in throughout the day. The NCAA fields will be revealed LIVE exclusively on Flo, and you would be a fool to miss it.
Here’s what to watch on Friday:
By Lincoln Shryack
TEAMS:
Syracuse, Iona, Columbia, Providence, Dartmouth, Harvard, Yale, Central Connecticut, Cornell, Binghamton, Brown, New Hampshire, Stony Brook, Army, Northeastern, Canisius, Boston U., Boston College, UConn, UMass Amherst, Maine, Albany, Buffalo, Fordham, Vermont, Fairfield, Marist, Holy Cross, Quinnipiac, Manhattan, Hartford, Siena, Bryant, Hofstra, Colgate, Niagara, St. Bonaventure
MEN:
#2 Syracuse have shown themselves to be serious national title contenders throughout 2015 and will be expected to easily win their third straight Northeast region title on Friday in Boston despite the fact that they will undoubtably run a controlled effort to save energy for Louisville. Such is the luxury of an elite team like ‘Cuse, as the Orange are sure to grab the W in Beantown while running within themselves throughout.
The strength of this team lies in their 1-2-3 punch of Justyn Knight, Martin Hehir, and Collin Bennie, who give coach Chris Fox one of, if not the best trios in the country. In three races this season, the ‘Cuse trifecta have averaged a tiny 6.5 second spread, with Bennie’s sixth place finish at Wisco the “worst” placing among the three in 2015. In short, that’s terrifying.
The Orange haven’t been quite as fearsome in their 4-5 slots, but Joel Hubbard and Dan Lennon are solid nonetheless. The senior Lennon is sure to step up his game with the distance bumped up to 10K, as he was 45th at NCAAs last fall and owns a 28:46 PR on the track.
Just like Syracuse, #7 Iona has locked down an NCAA bid already by virtue of their regular season success, so you should see the Gaels coasting up front with the Orange. Chartt Miller is a stud who showed his stripes by finishing third at Greater Louisville and eighth at Wisco, leading Iona in both contests. Coach Ricardo Santos’ squad can’t match the star power of Syracuse, but the Gaels have proven entities in Gilbert Kirui, Mike O’Dowd, and Kieran Clements, who finished 10-11-12 at Regionals in 2014.
Expect Ivy League champ Columbia and the Providence Friars to occupy third and fourth, respectively, which should be enough to book their flights to Louisville since they each have five regular season wins.
WOMEN:
The #4 Providence Lady Friars have become a trendy pick for the NCAA podium with the return of All-American Sarah Collins, who has established herself as a top-5 candidate after her dominating 15-second victory at Big East. There, Collins led a 1-2-3 Providence sweep that resulted in a 26-54 trouncing of 11th ranked Georgetown. All-American Catarina Rocha was just the Friars 4th runner, showing just how deep coach Ray Treacy’s team goes right now. Providence is my pick for second at NCAAs, so yeah, they’re an easy choice here.
The drop off is significant after Providence in this region, as #21 Syracuse is the only other ranked team in the Northeast. We have ‘Cuse projected to scoop up the second auto spot here, as they showed their potential by finishing 11th at Wisco. Senior Margo Malone is a top-20 NCAA talent and just finished third at ACCs for the second consecutive season. They won’t challenge the Friars, but the Orange are no doubt the next best squad.
The Ivy League should get two here with Yale and Columbia projected to advance if they fall in line at third and fourth. Yale has to beat their conference rivals to make Nationals as their zero points means they need Columbia to push them in.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Syracuse 2. Iona 3. Columbia 4. Providence
Individual Winner: Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
Individual Qualifiers: Kevin Dooney (Yale), Ben Rainero (Cornell), James Randon (Yale), Brian Masterson (Dartmouth)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Providence 2. Syracuse 3. Yale 4. Columbia
Individual Winner: Sarah Collins (Providence)
Individual Qualifiers: Christina Melian (Stony Brook), Dana Giordano (Dartmouth), Emily Durgin (UConn), Courtney Smith (Harvard)
By Lincoln Shryack
TEAMS:
Villanova, Georgetown, Princeton, Penn, Penn State, La Salle, Lehigh, Navy, UMBC, Duquesne, St. Joseph’s (Pa), American, Bucknell, Rider, Monmouth, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, New Jersey Institute, George Washington, Marshall, Temple, St. Francis (Pa), Robert Morris, Howard, Seton Hall, Loyola (Md)
MEN:
The Wildcats of Villanova have won the Mid-Atlantic region for two straight seasons, but their reign is certainly in danger as 14th ranked Georgetown beat ‘Nova by the slimmest of margins to take the Big East on Halloween. These teams are essentially equal in talent, and thus, Friday’s race at Princeton is a pick ‘em.
Villanova entered 2015 as a potential podium contender after finishing 7th in 2014, but outside of their talented trio of Pat Tiernan, Rob Denault, and Jordy Williamsz, the ‘Cats don’t have the depth of the nation’s other elite teams to make significant noise at NCAAs. Still though, there is plenty to be optimistic about for the boys from Philly as Tiernan has top-2 potential at Nationals and thus far is undefeated this season.
Georgetown has a breakout star in the form of sophomore Jonathan Green, who was runner-up to Tiernan at Big East and also finished an impressive sixth at Pre-Nats. Overall, the Hoyas have been a pleasant surprise in 2015 despite only returning three of their top seven from 2014 and having their coach leave the program in late summer, and they overtook ‘Nova two weekends ago at conference by placing all five scorers in the top 10. That race may end up being a bit misleading in relation to Regionals, however, as the Big East was very weak in 2015 and was also an incredibly fast (and short) race, perfect for milers Amos Bartelsmeyer and Ahmed Bile, who were 8th and 10th, respectively.
With the move up to 10K, I give the slight advantage to Villanova because of their experience at the distance, but expect a tight battle nonetheless. Regardless, these teams are likely the only two coming out of a weak region.
WOMEN:
The Penn State ladies made perhaps the biggest statement of conference weekend by shocking then second-ranked Michigan to win the Big 10 title, moving up five spots in our poll as a result. 12th may even be a conservative ranking for the Nittany Lions right now, as the women’s Big 10 champion has finished no worse than sixth the last three years at NCAAs. That may be a tough trend for PSU to prolong, but this team will certainly challenge Georgetown for the Mid-Atlantic region title on Friday.
Senior Tori Gerlach leads the State attack and was fourth at conference, which was a 35 place improvement from her 2014 showing. The Lions are very young behind their leader, with two sophomores, a freshman, and a junior rounding out the top five at Big 10s. Even despite their inexperience, this team clearly has the talent to shine in Louisville, as their top four managed a meager 16-second spread two weeks ago in Chicago.
The Hoyas from Georgetown had a lot of hype entering 2015 after finishing on the podium last fall, but they’ve tumbled slightly due to 2014 Big East and Mid-Atlantic champion Katrina Coogan’s graduation and senior Samantha Nadel’s injury issues. The All-American Nadel has missed the Hoyas’ last two races, but is expected to return on Friday, a huge boost for coach Michael Smith. If Nadel had run at conference and replicated her fourth place finish at Big East from 2014, the Hoyas would have finished less than 10 points behind Providence. She may not be in peak fitness, but Nadel’s presence gives her squad a good chance to beat Penn State.
We have the Ivy League champ Princeton slotted for third here, which will send them back to NCAAs despite competing this season without All-American Megan Curham. Villanova is currently our last team in to the Big Dance, but they cannot afford a slip up on Friday. Anything worse than fourth ends their season.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Villanova 2. Georgetown
Individual Winner: Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)
Individual Qualifiers: Thomas Awad (Penn), Hassan Omar (UMBC), Khalil Rmidi Kinini (UMES), Lucas Stalnaker (Navy)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Penn State 2. Georgetown 3. Princeton 4. Villnova
Individual Winner: Elizabeth Bird (Princeton)
Individual Qualifiers: Morgan Szekely (La Salle), Kelly Robinson (Navy), Ashley Montgomery (Penn), Blanca Fernandez (Temple)
By Taylor Dutch
TEAMS:
Stanford, Oregon, Portland, Washington, UCLA, Boise State, Arizona State, Cal Poly, Washington State, UC Santa Barbara, Gonzaga, Cal, UC Davis, Arizona, Loyala Marymount, Pacific (W), San Francisco, Long Beach State, Sacramento State, UC Irvine, Eastern Washington, Santa Clara, UC Riverside, Fresno State, Cal St. Fullerton, Seattle U., Portland State, Pepperdine, Idaho, Oregon State (W), Hawaii (W), San Diego, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV (W), USC (W), Cal St. Northridge (W), St. Mary’s
MEN:
If you had told us after the Wisconsin Invite that Stanford would come back from a 21st-place finish to earn second at the Pac-12 Championships just two weeks later, the entire FloTrack staff would have laughed in your face. Like many teams, Stanford experienced the unfortunate injury bug early on in the season, but Coach Chris Miltenberg has managed to bring his team back from the dead. All Americans Joe and Jim Rosa made their return to compete in the Cardinal uniform in Pullman, Washington where they finished eighth and 20th, respectively. The performance was especially significant for Jim, who had not run a cross country race since the 2013 NCAA Cross Country Championships where he finished fifth. If Miltenberg runs the same line-up from Pac-12s, which included a strong front-runner in Sean McGorty, freshman phenom Grant Fisher, and consistent scorer Garrett Sweatt, the Cardinal will be especially hard to beat at the West Regional.
For the past two cross country seasons, Oregon has had the most dominant individual in the NCAA in Edward Cheserek. This year has been no different as the two-time NCAA Cross Country Champion is fresh off capturing his third-consecutive Pac-12 Championship. The performance put the Duck in great company as only Henry Rono and Steve Prefontaine have won as many Pac-12 conference titles. Cheserek will have a solid team to follow him as the men of Oregon are coming off of a third-place finish at Pac-12s and a runner-up finish to Colorado at Pre-Nats.
With the immense depth of the West region, three men’s teams are looking to advance with at-large bids. As of the Nov. 5 Kolas Calculator projection, those teams could potentially be Washington, UCLA and Boise State. Washington has a clear front-runner in Izaic Yorks, who is in the midst of his best cross country season to date after finishing seventh at Wisconsin and third at the Pac-12 Championships. His third place finish at conference led the Huskies to fourth at Pac-12s, just behind No. 1 Colorado, No. 3 Stanford and No. 6 Oregon. No. 20 UCLA proved they were legit by finishing ninth at Wisco, and No. 22 Boise State captured a third-place finish at Mountain West.
WOMEN:
The women’s West region is projected to have six total teams advance to the NCAA Cross Country Championships, the most teams for any region in the entire country.
According to the Nov. 5 Kolas Calculator Projections, the No. 3 Oregon women are set to ride their pack-running strategy all the way to Louisville. Led by a top five of Waverly Neer (5th), Alli Cash (6th), Molly Grabill (11th), Frida Berge (14th), and Maggie Schmaedick (15th), the Oregon Ducks captured a runner-up finish to No. 2 Colorado at the Pac-12 Championships. The team’s 51-point total was just six points higher than the Buffaloes, and a whopping 29 points lower than third-place team Stanford.
Despite a mid-season injury, Stanford All American Aisling Cuffe was able to make her return to competition at the Pac-12 Championships, where she won the individual title and helped her No. 5-ranked team earn third in Pullman. After capturing both the Washington Invite victory and the Pac-12 title, Cuffe is a serious contender for the individual West Region title as well as a top five finish in Louisville.
The West will have a knock-out battle for at-large spots, with serious competition between No. 10 Washington, No. 13 Boise State, Gonzaga and Arizona State. Washington has seen greatness in team competition at the Pac-12 Championships (4th) and the Wisconsin Invitational (8th). Led by All American front-runner Maddie Meyers, the Huskies have captured more at-large wins (7) than any other at-large candidate, which will position them very well heading into Friday.
The Boise State Broncos not only have a solid team contingent, which has climbed up the rankings all season, but also an NCAA title contender in freshman Allie Ostrander. Ostrander has stomped all over her competition ever since winning the ultra competitive Wisconsin Invitational in October. The freshman’s most recent win came at the Mountain West Conference Championships, where she beat out the entire No. 1 New Mexico squad in dominating fashion, winning comfortably by 15 seconds. With Ostander’s lead and a solid top five, the Broncos should continue their tear to Louisville.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. Washington 4. UCLA 5. Boise State
Individual Winner: Edward Cheserek
Individual Qualifiers: John Whelan (Washington State), Chris Walden (Cal), Michael Williams (Washington State), Jeff Thies (Portland)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Oregon 2. Stanford 3. Washington 4. Boise State 5. Gonzaga 6. Arizona State
Individual Winner: Allie Ostrander (Boise State)
Individual Qualifiers: Carolina Johnson (UCLA), Danielle Shanahan (Loyola Marymount), Marissa Williams (Cal), Elena Burkard (USF)
By Meg Bellino
TEAMS:
Akron, Bowling Green, Butler, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Dayton, Detroit, Eastern Michigan, Evansville, Indiana, Indiana State, IPFW, IUPUI, Kent State, Marquette, Miami (Ohio), Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Oakland, Ohio State, Ohio U., Purdue, Toledo (W), Valparaiso, Western Michigan (W), Wis.-Green Bay, Wis.-Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Xavier (Ohio), Youngstown St.
MEN:
The Great Lakes region is Big Ten heavy, and would normally serve as another attempt for Michigan or Indiana to dethrone the Wisconsin men from winning more hardware. But, as we’ve seen in 2015, this will probably not be the case. The Wisconsin Badgers will be fighting for their lives this Friday on their home course for the first time… in a long time. “When it rains it pours,” was one takeaway Mick Byrne had after their disastrous Big Ten Championship (8th), and now the Badgers need to finish first or second for a guaranteed spot on the line at NCAAs. (According to our calculations, a third-place showing Friday should get them in via a “push” from Michigan State.) If they finish worse than third, standouts Morgan McDonald and Big Ten 1500m Champion Joe Hardy will be fighting for an individual spot at NCAAs, as we believe All-American Malachy Schrobilgen’s injury takes him out of the equation.
With Wisconsin fighting for survival, the Michigan Wolverines will storm into Madison with enough momentum to further prove their claim that it is indeed “Badger Hunting” season. Mason Ferlic, seventh in 2014 and third in 2013, will face non-conference challengers in John Mascari and Erik Peterson. 2014 GL winner Mascari bounced back from an off Pre-Nationals performance to win his fourth-straight Missouri Valley Conference title. Peterson had an excellent eighth-place finish at Pre-Nationals but lost to Patrick Tiernan and Jonathan Green at Big East after taking the field out in aggressive fashion. No matter, expect to see Ferlic, Big Ten Champion Matt McClintock, Mascari and Peterson leading the pack and closing hard.
WOMEN:
After last year’s 28-point destruction by NCAA Champions Michigan State, we won’t see that same kind of domination this fall. But really, we’ll be treated to something better - a face off between All-Americans Erin Finn and Molly Seidel. The two have yet to race this year and obliterated the competition at their respective conference meets. While Finn’s 6K mark this this fall, 19:44 from the Big Ten Championships, isn’t as quick as Seidel’s, a blistering 19:22 from the Wisconsin Invite, the two were done in completely different fashions. The question is, will this pair hold anything back?
The Michigan women are looking for a title to bring home after being upset by Penn State a few weeks ago, while Notre Dame is hoping to beat defending champs MSU (who they beat by only 6 points at Wisco last month) for the second auto-qualifier. Both are known for running away from the rest of the competition, so who will break the tape? Surprisingly, the pair have not raced each other since the NCAA XC meet in 2013, when Finn finished 30th and Seidel's 171st. Two years later and these athletes have risen to the top of the NCAA.
The Michigan women are looking for a title to bring home after being upset by Penn State a few weeks ago, while Notre Dame is hoping to beat defending champs MSU (who they beat by only 6 points at Wisco last month) for the second auto-qualifier. Both are known for running away from the rest of the competition, so who will break the tape? Surprisingly, the pair have not raced each other since the NCAA XC meet in 2013, when Finn finished 30th and Seidel's 171st. Two years later and these athletes have risen to the top of the NCAA.
With 2014 powerhouse MSU out of the question (top returners Rachele Schulist and Lindsay Clark are reportedly done for the year), they return only Alexis Wiersma from their winning regional team. Wiersma had an excellent runner-up performance at Big Tens, but she’ll need their supporting cast to step up big time to prevent any upsets thrown their way.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Michigan 2. Indiana 3. Michigan State
Individual Winner: Erik Peterson (Butler)
Individual Qualifiers: Erik Peterson (Butler), John Mascari (Indiana State), Matt McClintock (Purdue), Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Michigan 2. Notre Dame 3. Michigan State
Individual Winner: Erin Finn (Michigan)
Individual Qualifiers: Maria McDaniel (Western Michigan), Alsu Bogdanova (Eastern Mich), Sofia Gallein (Eastern Michigan), Shaelyn Sorensen (Wisconsin)
By Taylor Dutch
TEAMS:
Bradley, Chicago State, Creighton, Depaul, Drake, Eastern Illinois, Illinois, Illinois State, Illinois-Chicago, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Loyola, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, North Dakota St., Northern Illinois (W), Northern Iowa, Northwestern (W), Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Oral Roberts, Saint Louis, SE Missouri St., SIU-Edwardsville, South Dakota, South Dakota St., Southern Illinois, Tulsa, UMKC, Western Illinois, Wichita State
MEN:
No. 11 Oklahoma State and No. 15 Tulsa headline the men’s competition out of the Midwest Region where both teams are riding crushing victories out of their respective conferences.
True to form, Coach Dave Smith held out his team from stiff competition until the Big 12 Championships, where the Cowboys won the team title with a jaw-dropping 28 points, more than 30 points clear of runner-up Oklahoma. The No. 11 Cowboys aren’t ranked as high as they have been in previous years, but a strong team pack in Big 12 champ Vegard Olestad, Cerake Geberkidane, Craig Nowak, Chad Noelle, and Joshua Thompson should easily take the Midwest region for the fifth consecutive year.
Tulsa turned heads early on in the season with a clear front-runner in Marc Scott, who threw down a killer kick to win the individual crown at the ultra-competitive Wisconsin Invitational. Scott’s performance did not go unnoticed as the sophomore took down stiff competition in Syracuse’s Justyn Knight, Stanford’s Sean McGorty, and Syracuse’s Martin Hehir. His performance led the men of Tulsa to an eighth-place team finish that day, which carried them to an easy American Athletic Conference victory.
The potential team that could make it out of the Midwest Region with an at-large bid is Illinois, who is coming off a surprising runner-up finish at the Big Ten Championships. Led by a third-place finish from Dylan Lafond, Illinois tallied 81 points, just 18 points more than conference winner Michigan. The break-through conference performance catapulted the men of Illinois to No. 25 in the Saucony Flo50 team rankings.
WOMEN:
The No. 15 Iowa State Cyclones and the No. 23 Minnesota Gophers are set to roll through the Midwest Region after finishing second and fourth at their conference meets, respectively.
Iowa State experienced a lot of changes in their top five line-up compared to last year’s podium squad, but they bring a pack that has become stronger with each successive week. Perez Rotich and Erin Hooker have emerged as a dangerous 1-2 punch for the Cyclones, as they finished 1-2 at the Big 12 Conference Championships two weeks ago. The remaining top five scorers all finished in the top 18 at the conference meet, indicating a relatively tight top pack heading into regional competition on Friday.
Minnesota has also been a consistent force all season long, most recently with a fourth-place finish at the Big Ten Championships. The Gophers missed out on third-place to Michigan State by just two points, but showed a very close top five in Chicago. Led by an 11th-place finish from Liz Berkholtz, the Gophers were followed by a 14th-place finish from Kayla Urick, a 19th-place finish from Haley Johnson, a 20th-place finish from Madeline Strandemo, and a 44th-place finish from Jamie Piepenburg. If the Gophers maintain their consistency through the regional, they will have qualified for the NCAA Cross Country Championships for 11 years in a row.
In the individual race, North Dakota State All American Erin Teschuk is looking to continue her winning streak after claiming the Summit League Conference title two weeks ago by a whopping 23 seconds. Teschuk hasn’t raced a lot this season, but each race has made an impact, as she also won the Stanford Invitational in September.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Oklahoma State 2. Tulsa 3. Illinois
Individual Winner: Marc Scott (Tulsa)
Individual Qualifiers: Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma), Brandon Doughty (Oklahoma), Jacob Morgan (Kansas), Toby Hardwick (Iowa State)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Iowa State 2. Minnesota
Individual Winner: Erin Teschuk (NDSU)
Individual Qualifiers: Erin Teschuk (NDSU), Alyssa Schneider (Illinois), Sharon Lokedi (Kansas), Ingebor Loevnes (Oklahoma State)
By Lincoln Shryack
TEAMS:
Northern Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Brigham Young, Air Force Academy, Colorado State, Southern Utah, Wyoming, Montana State, Texas-El Paso, Utah State, Texas Tech, Utah Valley, Weber State, Idaho State, Montana, New Mexico State, Northern Colorado, Utah, Nevada
MEN:
The two-time defending NCAA champion Colorado Buffaloes once again highlight this region, as the top-ranked Buffs will shift into cruise control Friday and coast on in to Louisville. Mark Wetmore’s squad is still the odds-on-favorite to win it all on November 21st, as the senior core of Pierce Murphy, Ammar Moussa, Morgan Pearson, and Connor Winter have all the experience and talent to lead CU back to the promised land in 2015. Add in freshman John Dressel, who filled Ben Saarel’s void nicely with his sixth place finish at PAC-12, and Colorado should feel pretty good about themselves right now despite Saarel missing Pre-Nats and the conference championships. Colorado is the only team in the NCAA that can still win an national title even with the removal of a top-10 caliber guy like Saarel.
Behind Colorado, this region is not as strong as it was in 2014, but the ridiculous seven NCAA-qualifying teams from last season was a lofty standard that had no shot of being replicated. Still though, the Mountain will likely go four teams deep in 2015, and could make it five if both Air Force and Colorado State can get some help across the country. In our current projections, whichever teams beats the other out for fourth will head to NCAAs, leaving the other at home. Stay with me now.
The second auto spot will undoubtably go to BYU on Friday, as the Cougars’ strong pack propelled them to an impressive runner-up finish at the Wisconsin Invite. The last time they finished that high at Wisco (2013), Ed Eyestone’s team went on to podium at NCAAs, and their 17-point demolition at the West Coast Conference Championships two weeks ago certainly held firm to that possibility in 2015. Senior Aaron Fletcher and frosh Dallin Farnsworth have been outstanding this season for BYU.
The Anthony Rotich-led UTEP Miners were very impressive with their victory at Notre Dame and the fourth place showing at Pre-Nats that followed. Rotich, a four-time NCAA champion on the track and three-time XC All-American, is our pick to finish runner-up at NCAAs, and should take the individual region title for the second consecutive year. His teammate and fellow Kenyan Jonah Koech has been on Rotich’s heels all season, and gives this team arguably the best 1-2 punch in the country. UTEP has four points and will head to NCAAs for the second straight year with a third place finish in Albuquerque.
WOMEN:
The ladies’ side of the Mountain region also features the top-ranked team in the country, as the New Mexico Lady Lobos have been on a warpath in 2015, averaging an otherworldly 28.3 point total in their three meets this season. That’s as good as it gets in modern NCAA cross country, as Joe Franklin’s squad continues to light up the record book and figures to accumulate the lowest score at Nationals since the 1980s.
UMKC transfer and All-American Courtney Frerichs has been even better than advertised for the Lobos, leading UNM’s charge at every race with two runner-up finishes at Notre Dame and Mountain West, and a fourth place showing at Wisco. Even so, no one individual has outshined the whole for New Mexico, as this team’s modus operandi is their low spread, which has been just 30 seconds on average in 2015. In short, Franklin can seriously pull back on the reigns on Friday and still cruise into Louisville with a Regional title in tow.
The PAC-12 champs Colorado appear well on their way to a podium finish in 2015, as the Buffaloes placed four in the top eight at the conference championships. Erin Clark is a solid #1 for Mark Wetmore, as she was an All-American in 2014 and won Pre-Nats in October. In an excellent sign of their depth, Clark wasn’t even CU’s top runner at PAC-12s, as sophomore Kaitlyn Benner’s runner-up finish in Pullman was a huge breakout performance. The Buffs can’t scare New Mexico even with Benner and Clark running so well, but they are a lock for the second auto spot in Albuquerque.
The Utes from Utah were fifth at PAC-12s and project to finish third on Friday to book their first ever trip to NCAAs. On the backs of their solid ninth place showing at Wisco, BYU should also go Dancin’ with their projected fourth place finish in this region.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Colorado 2. BYU 3. UTEP 4. Air Force
Individual Winner: Anthony Rotich (UTEP)
Individual Qualifiers: Jerrell Mock (Colorado St.), Jefferson Abbey (Colorado St.) Hayden Hawks (Southern Utah), Tyler Day (Northern Arizona)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. New Mexico 2. Colorado 3. Utah 4. BYU
Individual Winner: Courtney Frerichs (New Mexico)
Individual Qualifiers: Hannah Everson (Air Force), Makenna Morley (Montana), Jocelyn Caro (Texas Tech), Melanie Townsend (Northern Arizona)
By Meg Bellino
TEAMS:
Alabama, Alabama State (W), Auburn, Belmont, Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida Gulf Coast, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia State (W), Georgia Tech, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Lipscomb, Memphis, Mercer, Midd. Tennessee State, Mississippi State, Mississippi, North Florida, Samford, South Alabama, South Florida, Southern Mississippi (W), Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin, UAB (W), UCF (W), Vanderbilt
MEN:
Last year, Ole Miss won the South Region by placing 3 in the top 5 and scoring 52 points. They returned everybody from that squad and even added a few high caliber transfers to their roster. Then they hit a bit of a slump. Their 24th-place finish at the Wisconsin Invite made us rethink our No. 10 ranking, and their third-place finish at the SEC Championships forced us to remove the Rebels from our Top 25 altogether. MJ Erb and Wes Gallagher are big question marks for this Friday, as Erb finished last at the SEC Championships and Gallagher was out due to illness. If this team can put it together, they should easily advance. Will they beat the Florida State Seminoles? They were seventh at the ACC Championships but could take advantage of Ole Miss not firing on all cylinders at the moment.
WOMEN:
WOMEN:
SEC teams Mississippi State and Vanderbilt should have this in the bag. Led by NCAA 1500m champ Rhianwedd Price and 1500m qualifier Marta Freitas, the Bulldog women are on the verge of history. They were fifth at Pre-Nationals and second at the SEC Championships, and have a solid 1-2 punch in Price and Freitas, not to mention a supporting cast of Cornelia Griesche, Lisa Ziegler, Ffion Price and Mia Meydrich. With South Region powerhouse Florida State having an off-year, this team should battle with Vanderbilt for the top spot.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Florida State 2. Ole Miss
Individual Winner: Antibahs Kosgei (Alabama)
Individual Qualifiers: Antibahs Kosgei (Alabama), Arse’ne Guillorel (Samford), Christoph Graf (South Alabama), Hillary Rono (Mid Tenn State)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Mississippi State 2. Vanderbilt
Individual Winner: Chelsea Blaase (Tennessee)
Individual Qualifiers: Chelsea Blaase (Tennessee), Katelyn Greenleaf (Alabama), Rachael Reddy (Alabama), Maria Larsen (Florida)
By Lincoln Shryack
TEAMS:
Eastern Kentucky, Virginia, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, William & Mary, Louisville, Duke, High Point, Liberty, UNC-Greensboro, Kentucky, George Mason, Morehead State, Furman, App State, Wake Forest, Richmond, Clemson, Davidson, Campbell, VMI, Western Kentucky, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, UNC-Asheville, VCU, USC Upstate, UNC-Wilmington, Radford, Western Carolina, Col. of Charleston, Murray State, Longwood, Presbyterian, Elon, East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, Davidson, Winthrop
MEN:
The Southeast region is undoubtably the deepest in the country this year, as we currently have six men’s teams projected to make NCAAs. It’s fair to label the Southeast the “dark horse” region, as teams like NC State, Furman, Louisville, and Virginia Tech have all exceeded expectations in 2015.
A year after missing out on NCAAs with their disappointing fifth place finish at Regionals, the ninth-ranked NC State Wolfpack are in position to win the Southeast title after finishing runner-up at ACCs for the second consecutive year. State’s poor showing at Regionals last year cost them dearly, but with their seventh place finish at Wisco, the ‘Pack are all but assured of heading to Louisville even if they don’t auto.
That being said, NC State should have no trouble placing top two on Friday, as they have beaten all of their regional foes this season save Furman, who they lost to by just a point at Wisco. State’s biggest weakness is their lack of a fifth man, who didn’t cross until 47th at ACCs.
#10 Virginia could be considered co-favorites with NC State to win this region, and the biggest question is which Cavalier squad will show up— will they perform like they did at Wisco (4th), or will they sputter like they did at conference (3rd)? I’m sticking with the former theory, as a couple guys seemingly just had off days at ACCs. With the race on their home course, I can’t see anyway that VA doesn’t grab an auto.
WOMEN:
Virginia and NC State have been neck and neck each of the last two races, as the eighth ranked Cavaliers (3rd) finished a place ahead of the ‘Pack (4th) at Wisco, and the same was true at ACCs, as Virginia beat NC State 71-75 to win the conference title. Expect another tight contest here, but given that Virginia is hosting the meet, and the odds are in their favor.
Both teams are considerably better than every other squad in this region, so these are certainly your autos. NC State could overtake Virginia if senior Samantha George runs like she did at Wisco, where she placed 12th to lead the team. The ‘Pack were just four points behind Virginia at conference despite George not even scoring at ACCs, so a good day for her could swing the tide in State's favor. If both George and frosh Ryen Frazier are on, this is an incredibly dangerous Wolfpack team.
William & Mary and North Carolina each have three Kolas points, which should get them to Louisville if they finish 3rd and 4th, respectively. The Tribe are the defending Southeast champs, and have two studs in senior Emily Stites and sophomore Regan Rome.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. N.C. State 2. Virginia 3. Furman 4. Eastern Kentucky 5. Virginia Tech 6. Louisville
Individual Winner: Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)
Individual Qualifiers: Shaun Thompson (Duke), Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell), Amon Terer (Campbell), Mark Derrick (North Carolina)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Virginia 2. NC State 3. William & Mary 4. North Carolina
Individual Winner: Cleo Boyd (Virginia)
Individual Qualifiers: Samantha Jones (Wake Forest), Allie Buchalski (Furman), Letitia Saayman (Coastal Carolina), Ednah Kurgat (Liberty)
By Meg Bellino
TEAMS:
Arkansas, Texas, Lamar, SFA, Rice, North Texas, Texas A&M, UTA, Baylor, TAMU Corpus, Houston, Central Arkansas, Ark-Little Rock, Sam Houston, Houston Baptist, UL-Monroe, LSU, UTSA, Arkansas State, Tulane, SE Louisiana, UL-Lafayette, New Orleans
MEN:
The Arkansas men have won the South Central Region the past two seasons, with the Texas men winning the two before that. With Arkansas coming off a dominating SEC Championship win, can Texas A&M slide into the second automatic spot? They finished runner-up to Arkansas at their conference championship, while Texas finished a disappointing third in the Big 12. The Longhorns are young (they lost four of their top five from 2014) but took down the Aggies on September 26 at their home Texas A&M Invitational. The Aggies may be on the upswing, however. Cameron Villarreal was eighth, their top finisher, at SECs in 23:43. A month prior against the Longhorns, he was only 37th in 24:40 on the same course. That's obviously good news for Texas A&M, and possibly bad news for the Longhorns if they suffer any hiccups Friday.
WOMEN:
The Arkansas women travelled to College Station to roll over the SEC competition a few weeks ago, so expect the same in the South Central Region. Dominique Scott will easily win and lead her young team to their sixth consecutive South Central title. The amazing thing about this team is that Scott is the only returning scorer from their fifth-place NCAA squad. She has taken a team of newcomers and formerly non-impactful veterans and helped turn them into the No. 7 team in the country, despite losing key pieces from their 2014 puzzle. A perfect example is senior Kaitlin Flattmann, who was 50th at the SEC XC meet last fall and placed sixth this season.
We think the SMU women have the best chance of grabbing that second auto spot based on their spread at the American East Championships, but they’ll really need last year’s South Central region third-place finisher Agnes Sjostrom to step up if they want a chance as a team. Texas A&M and Texas need to have great days to keep SMU out of NCAAs.
MEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Arkansas 2. Texas
Individual Winner: Brian Barraza (Houston)
Individual Qualifiers: Brian Barraza (Houston), Cameron Villarreal (Texas A&M), Charles Mathenge (Stephen F Austin), Iliass Aouani (Lamar)
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS:
1. Arkansas 2. SMU
Individual Winner: Dominique Scott (Arkansas)
Individual Qualifiers: Cali Roper (Rice), Sandie Raines (Texas), Karis Jochen (Texas A&M), Maggie Montoya (Baylor)