The buzz surrounding German Fernandez’s 10,000m debut is built around mystery.

Given the 25-year-old’s long struggle with injury and his spotty racing record because of that, it’s difficult to gauge how fast Fernandez will run tonight at Stanford. We know that it’s been nine and a half months since we last saw him on the track, as an outdoor season that got off to a promising start— a 3:43 victory in his 1500 heat at this same meet— was over by mid-June. Starting 2016 in a brand new event— and in a race that should be quick — would seem to be a bold move, as Fernandez doesn’t have a performance of late that suggests he’s ready to hang with this field over 25 laps.

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Full Stanford 10,000m field:

  1  leonard korir                    Unattached                  
  2  Aron Rono                        Unattached                  
  3  Alex Monroe                      Boulder Trac                
  4  shadrack kipchirchir             US Army WCAP                
  5  Robert Cheseret                  WCAP                        
  6  Aaron Nelson                     Washington                  
  7  Martin Hehir                     UNAT-Syracus                
  8  German Fernandez                 Nike                        
  9  Craig Lutz                       NAZ Elite                   
 10  Brian Barraza                    Houston                     
 11  Cory Glines                      Northern Ari                
 12  Jerrell Mock                     Colorado St.                
 13  Ryan Rutherford                  Illinois Sta                
 14  LUIS FERNANDO OSTOS CRUZ         FEDERACIÓN P                
 15  Scott Fauble                     NAZ Elite                   
 16  Antibahs Kosgei                  Alabama                     
 17  Hayden Hawks                     Southern Utah               
 18  Joseph Stewart                   Miami (Ohio)                
 19  John Whelan                      Washington S                
 20  Andrew Ronoh                     Arkansas                    
 21  Gabe Gonzalez                    Arkansas                    
 22  Luke Traynor                     Tulsa                       
 23  Connor McMillan                  BYU                         
 24  Frankline Tonui                  Arkansas                    
 25  Henry Cheseto                    Alaska Ancho                
 26  Trent Lusignan                   South Dakota                
 27  Dan Lowry                        BAA                         
 28  Amos Kosgey                      Eastern Kent                
 29  Tyler King                       Washington                  
 30  Tim Rackers                      Tulsa                       
 31  Ryan Dohner                      NAZ Elite

But while Fernandez’s pro career thus far has been underwhelming for a guy that ran 3:55 and 13:25 as an 18-year-old, that incredible talent combined with a willingness to dive into the 10k deep end offers up reason for optimism. The former NCAA champion has reportedly been crushing workouts in Flagstaff, and most importantly, is healthy.



This is unquestionably still my favorite WOW of all-time - Mile repeats w/Ok State from 2008:



But what does all that mean for this race?

It’s not clear. Maybe he’s fit enough to hang with the pace up front— which will probably be on the Olympic standard, 28:00— but his recent past makes that a tough sell for me. But Fernandez says he’s going for it, and with a field headlined by his former Oklahoma State teammate Shadrack Kipchirchir— who competed at Worlds last summer and has run 27:36— he’ll have help getting there.

One of the greatest high school distance runners in U.S. history is trying out a new event at a pivotal moment in his pro career. These are exciting times. I’ve asked some of the FloCrew to predict how fast they think Fernandez will run and explain their reasoning, while offering up my best guess as well. Make your picks below in our poll.

Meg - 28:13

When the Bowerman Track Club left Flagstaff to compete in the Millrose Games, Fernandez stayed put. The man has been in serious hibernation— word actually used by teammate Emily Infeld. You know who else is in Flagstaff? Scott Fauble (28:43 PR) and Craig Lutz (28:33). I'd like to think Fernandez has a plan and that is to be pulled to an Olympic Trials qualifier with guys he's been sharing miles with. 28:13. I'm bold like that. - Meg Bellino

Gordon - 29:10

German will run 29:10 (explanation missing because I'm at the beach). - Gordon Mack

Adam - 28:01

It's going to be fast and German finally finds his event. - Adam Oestreich

Lincoln - 28:45

While he's spent his entire career up to this point focusing on the 1500/5k, let’s not forget that Fernandez had some stellar NCAA XC performances back in the day at Oklahoma State. In 2010, he was 8th in Terre Haute and finished 11th the following season. The guy has range. But with the bumpy road he’s been on the last several years, I would be shocked to see German run under the Olympic standard. And he’s definitely not going full on Solinsky mode here. That said, 28:45 is my best guess, and I think that would be a tremendous step in the right direction for him tonight. - Lincoln Shryack


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