2016 NCAA D1 Outdoor ChampionshipsJun 7, 2016 by Dennis Young
How The Men's NCAA Title Will Be Won And Lost
How The Men's NCAA Title Will Be Won And Lost
Both FloTrack's team rankings and the USTFCCCA computer rankings have predicted that the Texas A&M men will win their first team title since they shared the
Both FloTrack's team rankings and the USTFCCCA computer rankings have predicted that the Texas A&M men will win their first team title since they shared the NCAA Outdoor Championship crown with Florida in 2013. That year ended in legendary heartbreak for the Aggies—heading into the 4x400m, all they had to do to beat Florida was get the stick around cleanly and beat one team. But they dropped the baton, and finished last.
Texas A&M's quest for redemption will be challenged by the two-time defending champion, Oregon, which picked up back-to-back wins in the years following the Aggies' misfortune.
Let's break down the battle between these two.
Note: All projections are from our team rankings.
Oregon has fewer potential scorers than Texas A&M—we have the Ducks scoring seven times to the Aggies' 12. Here's the best-case scenario for Oregon:
-Marcus Chambers wins the 400m (projected fourth; finished second in 2015): 10 points
-Blake Haney, Sam Prakel, and Matthew Maton take second, sixth, and seventh, respectively, in the 1500m (Haney projected second; Haney third in 2015): 13 points
-Edward Cheserek sweeps the 10K and 5K and Jake Leingang sneaks in a point or two in the 5K (Cheserek projected first and defending champ in both; Leingang 12th in 2015): 21 points
-Devon Allen wins the 110m hurdles (projected first; injured in 2015; won in 2014): 10 points
-Greg Skipper takes second in the hammer (projected second; third in 2015): 8 points
-Cody Danielson takes third in the javelin (projected fourth; redshirted in 2014; 14th for UCLA in 2014): 6 points
-Mitch Modin takes eighth in the decathlon (projected to score zero points; 18th in 2015): 1 point
BEST-CASE TOTAL: 69 POINTS
That's better than the 60.33 points we projected for Texas A&M! Assuming Texas A&M runs to chalk, the home team could three-peat at Hayward if they scratch out a few more points than expected in the 400m, 1500m, hammer, javelin, and decathlon. The only problem? Texas A&M has plenty of room for error, where Oregon has none.
-Fred Kerley takes third in the 400m (projected fourth; collegiate leader): 6 points
-Donavan Brazier and Hector Hernandez go 3-4 in the 800m (projected fourth and sixth): 11 points
-Robert Grant wins the 400m hurdles (projected sixth; collegiate leader): 10 points
-Chase Wolfle wins the pole vault; Jacob Wooten takes eighth (projected to go fifth and eighth; Wolfle ninth in 2015): 11 points
-Lindon Victor wins the decathlon (projected third; collegiate leader): 10 points
-Will Williams takes fifth in the long jump (projected fifth): 4 points
-Latario Collie wins the triple jump (projected first; second in 2015): 10 points
-Ioannis Kyriazis wins the javelin (projected second; fifth in 2015; collegiate leader): 10 points
-The 4x100m and 4x400m each take third (projected third and fourth, respectively; fifth and seventh last year): 12 points
BEST-CASE TOTAL: 84 points
Even if Oregon has the best-possible meet, Texas A&M still has a few points to play with. If the Aggies' 800m duo, plus their sprinters and field athletes, all perform at their best, there's nothing Oregon can do to win this meet.
But if Collie, Kyriazis, Victor, Wolfle, and Grant end up closer to fourth than first in their events; and/or a baton gets dropped; and/or Brazier or Hernandez fail to make the final, the meet is theirs for the taking. In that case, Cheserek and Allen need to deliver 30 points and get close to equal that amount from the supporting cast of Chambers, the 1500m runners, and the field.
Last year, Texas A&M's legendary head coach Pat Henry—a man who has a ridiculous 35 Division I titles, including roughly half of all of the women's NCAA Championships ever—wrote two blogs for Track & Field News protesting Oregon's permanent home-track advantage. Nothing would be sweeter for him than knocking off the Ducks at Hayward Field.
Texas A&M's quest for redemption will be challenged by the two-time defending champion, Oregon, which picked up back-to-back wins in the years following the Aggies' misfortune.
Let's break down the battle between these two.
Note: All projections are from our team rankings.
Oregon's Best-Case Scenario
Oregon has fewer potential scorers than Texas A&M—we have the Ducks scoring seven times to the Aggies' 12. Here's the best-case scenario for Oregon:
-Marcus Chambers wins the 400m (projected fourth; finished second in 2015): 10 points
-Blake Haney, Sam Prakel, and Matthew Maton take second, sixth, and seventh, respectively, in the 1500m (Haney projected second; Haney third in 2015): 13 points
-Edward Cheserek sweeps the 10K and 5K and Jake Leingang sneaks in a point or two in the 5K (Cheserek projected first and defending champ in both; Leingang 12th in 2015): 21 points
-Devon Allen wins the 110m hurdles (projected first; injured in 2015; won in 2014): 10 points
-Greg Skipper takes second in the hammer (projected second; third in 2015): 8 points
-Cody Danielson takes third in the javelin (projected fourth; redshirted in 2014; 14th for UCLA in 2014): 6 points
-Mitch Modin takes eighth in the decathlon (projected to score zero points; 18th in 2015): 1 point
BEST-CASE TOTAL: 69 POINTS
That's better than the 60.33 points we projected for Texas A&M! Assuming Texas A&M runs to chalk, the home team could three-peat at Hayward if they scratch out a few more points than expected in the 400m, 1500m, hammer, javelin, and decathlon. The only problem? Texas A&M has plenty of room for error, where Oregon has none.
Texas A&M's Best-Case Scenario
-Fred Kerley takes third in the 400m (projected fourth; collegiate leader): 6 points
-Donavan Brazier and Hector Hernandez go 3-4 in the 800m (projected fourth and sixth): 11 points
-Robert Grant wins the 400m hurdles (projected sixth; collegiate leader): 10 points
-Chase Wolfle wins the pole vault; Jacob Wooten takes eighth (projected to go fifth and eighth; Wolfle ninth in 2015): 11 points
-Lindon Victor wins the decathlon (projected third; collegiate leader): 10 points
-Will Williams takes fifth in the long jump (projected fifth): 4 points
-Latario Collie wins the triple jump (projected first; second in 2015): 10 points
-Ioannis Kyriazis wins the javelin (projected second; fifth in 2015; collegiate leader): 10 points
-The 4x100m and 4x400m each take third (projected third and fourth, respectively; fifth and seventh last year): 12 points
BEST-CASE TOTAL: 84 points
Even if Oregon has the best-possible meet, Texas A&M still has a few points to play with. If the Aggies' 800m duo, plus their sprinters and field athletes, all perform at their best, there's nothing Oregon can do to win this meet.
But if Collie, Kyriazis, Victor, Wolfle, and Grant end up closer to fourth than first in their events; and/or a baton gets dropped; and/or Brazier or Hernandez fail to make the final, the meet is theirs for the taking. In that case, Cheserek and Allen need to deliver 30 points and get close to equal that amount from the supporting cast of Chambers, the 1500m runners, and the field.
Last year, Texas A&M's legendary head coach Pat Henry—a man who has a ridiculous 35 Division I titles, including roughly half of all of the women's NCAA Championships ever—wrote two blogs for Track & Field News protesting Oregon's permanent home-track advantage. Nothing would be sweeter for him than knocking off the Ducks at Hayward Field.