The 2019 DIII NCAA XC Championships are this Saturday, Nov. 23, in Louisville, Kentucky. FloTrack will have Live coverage of the event beginning at 10:20 am ET.

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Below, we breakdown the contenders for the men's and women’s titles in Louisville:

MEN

#1 North Central (Ill.)

Region: 1st Midwest

Conference: 1st CCIW

2018 NCAAs: 1st

Case For: North Central’s greatest strength is their program legacy, as the winningest team in NCAA history brings an intimidation factor to the DIII Championships that cannot be overlooked. On Saturday, they’ll go for their 20th cross country national title and fourth straight. History aside, the 2019 Cardinals have excelled despite losing six of their top seven from last year. They enter Louisville undefeated and fresh off a 42-point margin of victory at the Midwest regional. At that race they had just a 20-second spread.

Case Against: Inexperience. Senior All-American Matt Osmulski is the only man with prior NCAA XC experience on the roster, a fact that makes NCC more vulnerable than their ranking and pedigree would suggest. The Cardinals were entirely unbeatable last year when they won NCAAs by 67 points, but that’s not the case for this version of the DIII powerhouse.

#2 Williams

Region: 1st New England

Conference: 1st NESCAC

2018 NCAAs: 8th

Case For: Led by the undefeated Aidan Ryan, the Williams Ephs have been one of DIII’s most improved teams a year after finishing eighth at nationals. Ryan’s perfect seven-for-seven campaign has established him as the individual favorite, and with just 13 seconds separating him and the team’s fifth at regionals, Williams is the obvious candidate to knock off North Central. Ryan Cox, the team’s No. 2 runner this year, was sixth at nationals in 2018.

Case Against: While Aidan Ryan has been dramatically improved this year, he was only 42nd at NCAAs last year. Williams’ title hopes hinge on him making the leap into the top five against competitors much more accomplished than him.

#3 Carnegie Mellon

Region: 1st Mideast

Conference: 1st UAA

2018 NCAAs: 18th

Case For: The Tartans have one of the tightest 1-5 spreads in DIII and at the midseason Rowan Inter-regional Border Battle just 21 seconds separated their first and final scorers. At that meet they beat fellow podium contenders Johns Hopkins and SUNY Geneseo. Mellon’s pack running strength was on full display last weekend at regionals as their 2-5 runners finished within five seconds of each other.

Case Against: Carnegie Mellon won the Mideast regional last year as well before plummeting to 18th at NCAAs. The Tartans haven’t placed top 10 at nationals since 2007 and they’ve never finished on the podium. Living up to their third-place ranking in Louisville will require CMU to defy the weight of history against them.

#4 Johns Hopkins

Region: 2nd Mideast

Conference: 1st Centennial

2018 NCAAs: 9th

Case For: The Blue Jays lost to Carnegie Mellon at regionals but that was deceiving since two of their top five runners rested. Hopkins has a low stick in junior Jared Pangallozzi-- 12th at NCAAs last year-- to complement their four other scorers who were separated by just 10 seconds at conference.

Case Against: Aside from Pangallozzi, JHU doesn’t have another runner who finished in the top 100 at nationals in 2018. To crack the podium a year after placing ninth, Hopkins will rely on their ace having a great day and the rest of the top five running career-best races.

#5 UW-La Crosse

Region: 2nd Midwest

Conference: 1st WIAC

2018 NCAAs: 3rd

Case For: UWL has four runners back from their 2018 third place team, including DIII’s top returner Josh Schraeder. After notching his first All-American nod last fall, senior Tyler Nault has taken another step forward this year to join Schraeder at the front of the pack. The Eagles could have two men in the top 10 on Saturday.

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Case Against: La Crosse receives an annual NCAA litmus test at the Midwest regional against North Central, and this year’s tune-up saw them finish 42 points behind NCC last Saturday. The Eagles’ ceiling falls short of winning the national title. Still, with so much experience and having finished in the top three the last two years, UWL should feel good about their podium chances.

WOMEN

#1 Washington U.

Region: 1st Midwest

Conference: 1st UAA

2018 NCAAs: 1st

Case For: Wash U. will attempt to sweep the women’s individual and team titles for the second straight year in 2019. And with reigning champion Paige Lawler firing on all cylinders, the Bears have an excellent shot to do that as she won the regional meet by 20 seconds and had five of her teammates finish in the top 15 there as well.

Case Against: The Bears had a perfect day at nationals last year and they still only beat Johns Hopkins by one point. It may be unreasonable to expect them to get three women in the top 15 again, especially since 2018 top 10 finisher Aly Wayne graduated.

#2 Johns Hopkins

Region: 1st Mideast

Conference: 1st Centennial

2018 NCAAs: 2nd

Case For: Had the Blue Jays been just two points better at NCAAs in 2018, they would have won their third straight cross country national title and sixth in the span of seven years. The silver lining is that the 2019 squad should be extra motivated to win this time. Hopkins won the Mideast regional over third-ranked Dickinson despite resting their top four. When they have competed at full strength, their pack has been lethal. 16 seconds was their spread at the Rowan Inter-regional Border Battle in October.

Case Against: With 2018 NCAA sixth place finisher Caelyn Reilly down this year, Hopkins’ top returner from last year’s meet will be Therese Olshanski, who was 35th in 2018. A lack of a low stick could doom the Blue Jays against a Wash U. team that will have at least two in the front pack. The tight spread is nice, but it won’t matter if Hopkins can’t get a handful of women in the top 40.

#3 Dickinson

Region: 2nd Mideast

Conference: 2nd Centennial

2018 NCAAs: 14th

Case For: Dickinson has an individual title contender in Isabel Cardi, who enters NCAAs having won her last two races by an average of 41 seconds. The Red Devils cannot boast an impressive spread, but they do have two women in addition to Cardi who finished top 10 at both conference and regionals. That was particularly impressive at conference as they faced the best of Johns Hopkins.

Case Against: Dickinson’s fifth runner has been a tremendous liability this season as their spread has been north of two minutes at their last three races. Some of that is due to Cardi’s excellence, but they need to shore up the gap in order to find the podium on Saturday.

#4 Williams

Region: 1st New England

Conference: 1st NESCAC

2018 NCAAs: 7th

Case For: Williams beat a strong MIT team by 20 points at the New England regional to establish themselves as podium material. They did so with a 27-second spread.

Case Against: The Ephs don’t have a single cross country All-American in their top seven. Freshman Eva Borton certainly has that potential having placed top eight at each of her races, but Williams as currently constructed is an unproven bunch.

#5 U. of Chicago

Region: 2nd Midwest

Conference: 2nd UAA

2018 NCAAs: 11th

Case For: Chicago has finished 29 points behind No. 1 Wash U. in consecutive races, a close enough margin to suggest that the Maroons are podium contenders. They have a potent top three who were separated by just seven seconds at the conference meet.

Case Against: Chicago’s No. 2 from NCAAs last year, Emma Dyer, hasn’t competed since October, and they’ve missed the depth she provided as the Maroons’ fourth and fifth scorers have been well back of their top three in recent races. They still put six in the top 30 at regionals, but that paled in comparison to Washington, who had six in the top 15.