The top 15 finishers in Saturday’s Foot Locker National Cross Country Championships will have the title of high school “All-American” bestowed upon them. Despite Nike Cross Nationals' growth weakening the San Diego race in recent years, Foot Locker All-Americans still represent the elite of the elite high school prospects. Every NCAA coach in the country wants a runner who thrives at the most prestigious prep cross country race in the world.

With that in mind, I was curious how Foot Locker All-Americans have performed at the NCAA level in the last decade. When an athlete is among the best in the country as a high schooler, the expectation is for them to continue that trajectory in college. But how often do U.S. prep superstars actually pan out in the NCAA?

To find out, I looked at every high school senior who finished top 15 at Foot Locker since 2009 and then compiled their NCAA stats. I wanted to see how frequently true freshmen compete at the NCAA Cross Country Championships just a year removed from Foot Locker, and also how many of them immediately earn All-American finishes (top 40) in their first year on campus.

The data shows that the step up from high school to the NCAA level is tremendous. 

Less than one-third of male Foot Locker All-Americans from 2009-2018 competed at NCAA XC the following season as true freshmen, while their female counterparts fared only slightly better at 39%. And the chances of a top 15 finish in San Diego translating to a top 40 NCAA XC showing in the span of one year is minuscule: less than 10% of men and women accomplished that feat in the last decade. 

For every Grant Fisher and Weini Kelati, there’s 10 Foot Locker stars who don’t immediately make the jump to NCAA stardom. 

Obviously, stats aren’t required to know that the difference between U.S. high school and NCAA competition is stark. The inclusion of international athletes and the sophistication of training methods makes for a much larger pool of elite talent at the college level compared to high school.

While a top 15 Foot Locker finisher is much more likely to miss NCAAs and/or redshirt as a true frosh than compete at nationals in their first collegiate season, the numbers are more encouraging for prep stars as their NCAA careers develop. From the Foot Locker classes of 2009 to 2015 (those that have, for the most part, completed their collegiate careers), over 70% of men and women have qualified for NCAA XC two or more times.

And as far as translating a Foot Locker All-American award to an eventual NCAA All-American finish, 34% of men and 43% of women from 2009 to 2015 were able to accomplish that feat at least once as a Division I collegiate.

So on Saturday at Balboa Park, the award winners will end their high school cross country careers with expectations of similar success at the next level. But if the trends of the last decade continue, that success will likely take years to develop. With injuries, training changes, and a significant uptick in competition, it’s hard to maintain an elite level from high school to college.