As with any marathon, the questions are plenty for the Olympic Marathon Trials. You can parse out results from half marathons and read interviews for tidbits about build-ups (hint: most of the time they are either “solid” or “the best I’ve ever had”). But none of us know much of anything. That’s what makes the marathon fun—and particularly this marathon, complete with high stakes and three winners per race. 

There are, however, a few predictable parts of the race. Using a combination of my knowledge of past racing habits, maniacal checking of social media and trenchant analytic skills of all things running, I’m prepared to reveal what will happen on Saturday morning in Atlanta. 

Spoiler alert: these are spoilers.

1. Bernard Lagat will outkick someone

It might be for sixth place, it might be for 30th place, it might, if he has the race of his life, be for third, but Bernard Lagat will absolutely walk somebody down in the final 100 meters. At 45, he’s the oldest person in the field. That’s not something you associate with top speed. But he’s also the only 3:26 1500m runner in history to attempt a marathon.

2. There will be Vaporfly takes

The subject that dominated the pre-race discussion will be the focal point of the race, regardless of the outcome. If Alphafly-wearing athletes get four of the six spots, expect takes so volcanic they will immediately be driven right next door to the CDC here in Atlanta as a precaution. 

Even if there is a result that is light on Nike athletes (perhaps a team of Emily Sisson, Des Linden, Molly Huddle, Jared Ward, Galen Rupp and Scott Fauble—which wouldn’t be a stunning top-three), there will still be plenty of wondering if the person finishing 18th in the green and black moon boots really deserved their spot.

Side note: Nike’s willingness to give out the Alphafly to any and all Trials qualifiers was a shrewd marketing move. Virtually every outlet has written about the shoes (or done a faux investigation video). But I’m wondering if it could backfire. 

What if some of the non-Nike sponsored athletes run in them, get blisters/painful arches/some other weird ailment from racing in shoes they ran in once before a race? Then, they decide to go and tell the masses. There’s also the more plausible scenario that the shoes don’t dominate the podium, or even the top ten. If Jordan Hasay has a bad day, there’s a reasonable scenario where no Nike athlete (let alone one wearing Alphaflys), finishes in the top 10 of the women’s race. Do those optics matter to Nike? Probably not, because they are going for $1000 on the resale market already. Moving on.....

3. Des Linden will somehow run even splits 

This is what she does. Linden described the course as “unlike anything anyone has ever been on before.” It’s more hilly than New York and it doesn’t have the respite of the downhills of Boston.

But Linden will put all that intel into the marathon supercomputer that resides in her brain and somehow, spit out the perfect, patient race plan. 

If all goes as expected Linden, the Human Metronome, will have a top-three spot secured as she runs the final mile past the State Farm Arena, where there’s a statue of Atlanta Hawks great Dominque Wilkins--known as the Human Highlight Film. Cool nickname recognize cool nickname. 

4. Galen Rupp won’t lead

Rupp leading is a rare sight, even when he wasn’t coming off surgery. Now, I think he will be especially cautious in the early miles as he traverses the rolling hills. Rupp will cover every move in the early part of the race, but he won’t move to the front until the final 10 kilometers at the very earliest. 

5. Jared Ward, the Professor, will be mentioned

Ward teaches statistics at BYU and has studied, among other things, optimal marathon pacing. This will be discussed on the broadcast on at least one occasion….possibly 12 occasions. Other things that you can put on your bingo board/drinking game list:

-Alphafly/Vaporfly

-Sergeant Leonard Korir

-Scott Fauble liking burritos 

-Alphine Tuliamuk's knitted hats 

-The marathon doesn’t start until 20 miles

-Lots of these runners trained at altitude